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Sports·Mma

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Market icon
Sports·Mma

Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Derrick Lewis 27.3%

Ciryl Gane 27%

Ante Delija 24.8%

Serghei Spivac 2.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Derrick Lewis 27.3%

Ciryl Gane 27%

Ante Delija 24.8%

Serghei Spivac 2.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Derrick Lewis

$0 Vol.

27%

Ciryl Gane

$1,740 Vol.

27%

Ante Delija

$0 Vol.

25%

Serghei Spivac

$0 Vol.

3%

Alexander Volkov

$0 Vol.

11%

Waldo Cortes Acosta

$0 Vol.

1%

Marcin Tybura

$0 Vol.

9%

Jailton Almeida

$0 Vol.

15%

Curtis Blaydes

$0 Vol.

12%

Tom Aspinall

$778 Vol.

40%

Sergei Pavlovich

$0 Vol.

28%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Trader consensus positions Tom Aspinall as the 50.5% implied probability favorite to hold the UFC Heavyweight title at the end of 2026, bolstered by his interim championship defenses, capped by a blistering 60-second knockout of Curtis Blaydes in their UFC 304 rematch this July—avenging his lone career loss and underscoring his elite finishing rate. Jon Jones' undisputed reign faces skepticism due to inactivity since UFC 285 over 20 months ago, injury setbacks delaying his UFC 309 clash with Stipe Miocic on November 16, and turning 38 next year. Sergei Pavlovich (26.6%) persists as a knockout machine despite TKOs to Aspinall and Derrick Lewis (26.0%), whose three-fight KO streak including Pavlovich at UFC 302 highlights veteran power; Ciryl Gane (26.5%) leverages technical striking after submitting Serghei Spivac at UFC 303, in a division ripe for upsets with rising contenders like Jailton Almeida on an unbeaten tear.

Trader consensus positions Tom Aspinall as the 50.5% implied probability favorite to hold the UFC Heavyweight title at the end of 2026, bolstered by his interim championship defenses, capped by a blistering 60-second knockout of Curtis Blaydes in their UFC 304 rematch this July—avenging his lone career loss and underscoring his elite finishing rate. Jon Jones' undisputed reign faces skepticism due to inactivity since UFC 285 over 20 months ago, injury setbacks delaying his UFC 309 clash with Stipe Miocic on November 16, and turning 38 next year. Sergei Pavlovich (26.6%) persists as a knockout machine despite TKOs to Aspinall and Derrick Lewis (26.0%), whose three-fight KO streak including Pavlovich at UFC 302 highlights veteran power; Ciryl Gane (26.5%) leverages technical striking after submitting Serghei Spivac at UFC 303, in a division ripe for upsets with rising contenders like Jailton Almeida on an unbeaten tear.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Trader consensus positions Tom Aspinall as the 50.5% implied probability favorite to hold the UFC Heavyweight title at the end of 2026, bolstered by his interim championship defenses, capped by a blistering 60-second knockout of Curtis Blaydes in their UFC 304 rematch this July—avenging his lone career loss and underscoring his elite finishing rate. Jon Jones' undisputed reign faces skepticism due to inactivity since UFC 285 over 20 months ago, injury setbacks delaying his UFC 309 clash with Stipe Miocic on November 16, and turning 38 next year. Sergei Pavlovich (26.6%) persists as a knockout machine despite TKOs to Aspinall and Derrick Lewis (26.0%), whose three-fight KO streak including Pavlovich at UFC 302 highlights veteran power; Ciryl Gane (26.5%) leverages technical striking after submitting Serghei Spivac at UFC 303, in a division ripe for upsets with rising contenders like Jailton Almeida on an unbeaten tear.

Trader consensus positions Tom Aspinall as the 50.5% implied probability favorite to hold the UFC Heavyweight title at the end of 2026, bolstered by his interim championship defenses, capped by a blistering 60-second knockout of Curtis Blaydes in their UFC 304 rematch this July—avenging his lone career loss and underscoring his elite finishing rate. Jon Jones' undisputed reign faces skepticism due to inactivity since UFC 285 over 20 months ago, injury setbacks delaying his UFC 309 clash with Stipe Miocic on November 16, and turning 38 next year. Sergei Pavlovich (26.6%) persists as a knockout machine despite TKOs to Aspinall and Derrick Lewis (26.0%), whose three-fight KO streak including Pavlovich at UFC 302 highlights veteran power; Ciryl Gane (26.5%) leverages technical striking after submitting Serghei Spivac at UFC 303, in a division ripe for upsets with rising contenders like Jailton Almeida on an unbeaten tear.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Tom Aspinall" at 40%, followed by "Sergei Pavlovich" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Tom Aspinall" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sergei Pavlovich" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Heavyweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.