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Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Market icon
Sports·UFC

Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?

Islam Makhachev 72%

Michael Morales 13%

Carlos Prates 9%

Ian Machado Garry 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Islam Makhachev 72%

Michael Morales 13%

Carlos Prates 9%

Ian Machado Garry 7%

Polymarket
NEW

Islam Makhachev

$0 Vol.

76%

Michael Morales

$0 Vol.

13%

Carlos Prates

$0 Vol.

9%

Ian Machado Garry

$0 Vol.

7%

Kamaru Usman

$0 Vol.

4%

Jack Della Maddalena

$1,318 Vol.

2%

Joaquin Buckley

$0 Vol.

1%

Leon Edwards

$634 Vol.

1%

Belal Muhammad

$0 Vol.

1%

Sean Brady

$0 Vol.

1%

Shavkat Rakhmonov

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Trader consensus heavily favors Islam Makhachev at 75.5% implied probability to claim the UFC Welterweight title by end-2026, driven by his pound-for-pound supremacy with four straight lightweight title defenses, including submissions over Dustin Poirier and Arman Tsarukyan rumors fueling speculation of a division jump after potential lightweight cleanout. Rising knockout artist Carlos Prates (8.5%) surges on his four-fight UFC KO streak, highlighted by headshot finishes of Neil Magny and Li Jingliang in recent main card bouts. Undefeated prospect Michael Morales (7.5%) and Ian Machado Garry (7.0%) gain traction via dominant wins over top-15 contenders, positioning them as title threats amid Belal Muhammad's untested reign post-UFC 304 upset over Leon Edwards. Former champ Kamaru Usman (4.5%) lingers on comeback potential despite inactivity.

Trader consensus heavily favors Islam Makhachev at 75.5% implied probability to claim the UFC Welterweight title by end-2026, driven by his pound-for-pound supremacy with four straight lightweight title defenses, including submissions over Dustin Poirier and Arman Tsarukyan rumors fueling speculation of a division jump after potential lightweight cleanout. Rising knockout artist Carlos Prates (8.5%) surges on his four-fight UFC KO streak, highlighted by headshot finishes of Neil Magny and Li Jingliang in recent main card bouts. Undefeated prospect Michael Morales (7.5%) and Ian Machado Garry (7.0%) gain traction via dominant wins over top-15 contenders, positioning them as title threats amid Belal Muhammad's untested reign post-UFC 304 upset over Leon Edwards. Former champ Kamaru Usman (4.5%) lingers on comeback potential despite inactivity.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).Trader consensus heavily favors Islam Makhachev at 75.5% implied probability to claim the UFC Welterweight title by end-2026, driven by his pound-for-pound supremacy with four straight lightweight title defenses, including submissions over Dustin Poirier and Arman Tsarukyan rumors fueling speculation of a division jump after potential lightweight cleanout. Rising knockout artist Carlos Prates (8.5%) surges on his four-fight UFC KO streak, highlighted by headshot finishes of Neil Magny and Li Jingliang in recent main card bouts. Undefeated prospect Michael Morales (7.5%) and Ian Machado Garry (7.0%) gain traction via dominant wins over top-15 contenders, positioning them as title threats amid Belal Muhammad's untested reign post-UFC 304 upset over Leon Edwards. Former champ Kamaru Usman (4.5%) lingers on comeback potential despite inactivity.

Trader consensus heavily favors Islam Makhachev at 75.5% implied probability to claim the UFC Welterweight title by end-2026, driven by his pound-for-pound supremacy with four straight lightweight title defenses, including submissions over Dustin Poirier and Arman Tsarukyan rumors fueling speculation of a division jump after potential lightweight cleanout. Rising knockout artist Carlos Prates (8.5%) surges on his four-fight UFC KO streak, highlighted by headshot finishes of Neil Magny and Li Jingliang in recent main card bouts. Undefeated prospect Michael Morales (7.5%) and Ian Machado Garry (7.0%) gain traction via dominant wins over top-15 contenders, positioning them as title threats amid Belal Muhammad's untested reign post-UFC 304 upset over Leon Edwards. Former champ Kamaru Usman (4.5%) lingers on comeback potential despite inactivity.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Islam Makhachev" at 76%, followed by "Carlos Prates" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 4, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" is "Islam Makhachev" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Prates" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.