Market icon
Politics·DHS

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Market icon
Politics·DHS

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

After April 30 57.7%

April 13-16 23.3%

April 17-20 7.3%

April 9-12 3.1%

Polymarket

$361,073 Vol.

After April 30 57.7%

April 13-16 23.3%

April 17-20 7.3%

April 9-12 3.1%

Polymarket

$361,073 Vol.

Before April 1

$29,575 Vol.

2%

April 1-4

$1,655 Vol.

3%

April 5-8

$1,595 Vol.

2%

April 9-12

$1,365 Vol.

3%

April 13-16

$7,474 Vol.

23%

April 17-20

$293,649 Vol.

7%

Arpil 21-24

$17,656 Vol.

2%

April 25-28

$2,113 Vol.

1%

April 29-30

$2,130 Vol.

1%

After April 30

$3,860 Vol.

58%

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history at over 40 days, stems from partisan disputes over appropriations for immigration enforcement agencies like ICE and CBP, with Democrats seeking restrictions and Republicans insisting on full funding without limits. Senate passage of a bipartisan continuing resolution late Friday was rebuffed by House Republicans, who advanced their own measure unlikely to clear the Senate, leaving negotiations stalled as Congress departs for a two-week spring recess starting this weekend. This impasse drives trader consensus toward resolution after April 30 (58%), with the next likeliest window post-recess on April 13-16 (24%), reflecting expectations of prolonged deadlock amid airport disruptions from unpaid TSA workers and broader impacts on FEMA and Coast Guard operations.

The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history at over 40 days, stems from partisan disputes over appropriations for immigration enforcement agencies like ICE and CBP, with Democrats seeking restrictions and Republicans insisting on full funding without limits. Senate passage of a bipartisan continuing resolution late Friday was rebuffed by House Republicans, who advanced their own measure unlikely to clear the Senate, leaving negotiations stalled as Congress departs for a two-week spring recess starting this weekend. This impasse drives trader consensus toward resolution after April 30 (58%), with the next likeliest window post-recess on April 13-16 (24%), reflecting expectations of prolonged deadlock amid airport disruptions from unpaid TSA workers and broader impacts on FEMA and Coast Guard operations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history at over 40 days, stems from partisan disputes over appropriations for immigration enforcement agencies like ICE and CBP, with Democrats seeking restrictions and Republicans insisting on full funding without limits. Senate passage of a bipartisan continuing resolution late Friday was rebuffed by House Republicans, who advanced their own measure unlikely to clear the Senate, leaving negotiations stalled as Congress departs for a two-week spring recess starting this weekend. This impasse drives trader consensus toward resolution after April 30 (58%), with the next likeliest window post-recess on April 13-16 (24%), reflecting expectations of prolonged deadlock amid airport disruptions from unpaid TSA workers and broader impacts on FEMA and Coast Guard operations.

The partial Department of Homeland Security shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history at over 40 days, stems from partisan disputes over appropriations for immigration enforcement agencies like ICE and CBP, with Democrats seeking restrictions and Republicans insisting on full funding without limits. Senate passage of a bipartisan continuing resolution late Friday was rebuffed by House Republicans, who advanced their own measure unlikely to clear the Senate, leaving negotiations stalled as Congress departs for a two-week spring recess starting this weekend. This impasse drives trader consensus toward resolution after April 30 (58%), with the next likeliest window post-recess on April 13-16 (24%), reflecting expectations of prolonged deadlock amid airport disruptions from unpaid TSA workers and broader impacts on FEMA and Coast Guard operations.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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23%
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ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31?

<1%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the DHS shutdown end?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "After April 30" at 58%, followed by "April 13-16" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 58¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will the DHS shutdown end?" has generated $361.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will the DHS shutdown end?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" is "After April 30" at 58%, meaning the market assigns a 58% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 13-16" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.