Market icon
Politics·DHS

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Market icon
Politics·DHS

When will the DHS shutdown end?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

After April 30 57.0%

April 13-16 12.5%

April 17-20 11.8%

Arpil 21-24 11.6%

Polymarket

$483,869 Vol.

After April 30 57.0%

April 13-16 12.5%

April 17-20 11.8%

Arpil 21-24 11.6%

Polymarket

$483,869 Vol.

Before April 1

$31,156 Vol.

2%

April 1-4

$2,965 Vol.

2%

April 5-8

$2,885 Vol.

2%

April 9-12

$2,439 Vol.

2%

April 13-16

$8,699 Vol.

13%

April 17-20

$387,455 Vol.

12%

Arpil 21-24

$37,521 Vol.

12%

April 25-28

$2,863 Vol.

2%

April 29-30

$2,849 Vol.

2%

After April 30

$5,228 Vol.

57%

This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.A partisan deadlock in Congress over Department of Homeland Security appropriations—tied to competing demands for immigration enforcement reforms at ICE and CBP—has prolonged the partial government shutdown to 45 days as of March 30, 2026, surpassing prior records and positioning "After April 30" at 57% trader consensus. House Speaker Mike Johnson's March 27 rejection of the Senate's unanimous bill funding most DHS agencies except enforcement operations, favoring instead a full 60-day continuing resolution unlikely to pass the Senate, underscores the impasse amid repeated failed bills. Congressional spring recess until mid-April delays votes, while TSA staffing shortages and airport delays heighten pressure but yield no clear resolution path, reflected in single-digit odds for early April buckets.

A partisan deadlock in Congress over Department of Homeland Security appropriations—tied to competing demands for immigration enforcement reforms at ICE and CBP—has prolonged the partial government shutdown to 45 days as of March 30, 2026, surpassing prior records and positioning "After April 30" at 57% trader consensus. House Speaker Mike Johnson's March 27 rejection of the Senate's unanimous bill funding most DHS agencies except enforcement operations, favoring instead a full 60-day continuing resolution unlikely to pass the Senate, underscores the impasse amid repeated failed bills. Congressional spring recess until mid-April delays votes, while TSA staffing shortages and airport delays heighten pressure but yield no clear resolution path, reflected in single-digit odds for early April buckets.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to the calendar date range (ET) of the end date of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown which began on February 14, 2026. The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify. The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.A partisan deadlock in Congress over Department of Homeland Security appropriations—tied to competing demands for immigration enforcement reforms at ICE and CBP—has prolonged the partial government shutdown to 45 days as of March 30, 2026, surpassing prior records and positioning "After April 30" at 57% trader consensus. House Speaker Mike Johnson's March 27 rejection of the Senate's unanimous bill funding most DHS agencies except enforcement operations, favoring instead a full 60-day continuing resolution unlikely to pass the Senate, underscores the impasse amid repeated failed bills. Congressional spring recess until mid-April delays votes, while TSA staffing shortages and airport delays heighten pressure but yield no clear resolution path, reflected in single-digit odds for early April buckets.

A partisan deadlock in Congress over Department of Homeland Security appropriations—tied to competing demands for immigration enforcement reforms at ICE and CBP—has prolonged the partial government shutdown to 45 days as of March 30, 2026, surpassing prior records and positioning "After April 30" at 57% trader consensus. House Speaker Mike Johnson's March 27 rejection of the Senate's unanimous bill funding most DHS agencies except enforcement operations, favoring instead a full 60-day continuing resolution unlikely to pass the Senate, underscores the impasse amid repeated failed bills. Congressional spring recess until mid-April delays votes, while TSA staffing shortages and airport delays heighten pressure but yield no clear resolution path, reflected in single-digit odds for early April buckets.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"When will the DHS shutdown end?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "After April 30" at 57%, followed by "April 13-16" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will the DHS shutdown end?" has generated $483.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will the DHS shutdown end?," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" is "After April 30" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "April 13-16" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will the DHS shutdown end?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.