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Finance·Equities

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?

Market icon
Finance·Equities

What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?

Mar 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$621,846 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$621,846 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ $8,000

$0 Vol.

<1%

↑ $7,500

$36,599 Vol.

<1%

↑ $7,300

$76,872 Vol.

<1%

↑ $7,200

$4,614 Vol.

<1%

↑ $7,100

$40,117 Vol.

<1%

↑ $7,000

$24,584 Vol.

<1%

↑ $6,900

$16,565 Vol.

1%

↓ $6,300

$110,256 Vol.

56%

↓ $6,200

$35,791 Vol.

32%

↓ $6,000

$45,180 Vol.

4%

↓ $5,000

$157,945 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 has surged to fresh all-time highs above 5,250 this week, propelled by robust artificial intelligence-driven earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia, which beat revenue expectations amid soaring data center demand. February CPI inflation eased to 3.2% year-over-year, reinforcing trader bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June, with market-implied odds via fed funds futures pricing three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Treasury 10-year yields have dipped below 4.1%, supporting equity risk appetite despite sticky services inflation. The FOMC's March 19-20 meeting and updated dot plot represent the pivotal near-term catalyst, potentially clarifying the policy path amid resilient nonfarm payrolls and consumer spending. Volatility remains subdued near VIX 13, reflecting broad trader consensus on soft-landing optimism.

The S&P 500 has surged to fresh all-time highs above 5,250 this week, propelled by robust artificial intelligence-driven earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia, which beat revenue expectations amid soaring data center demand. February CPI inflation eased to 3.2% year-over-year, reinforcing trader bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June, with market-implied odds via fed funds futures pricing three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Treasury 10-year yields have dipped below 4.1%, supporting equity risk appetite despite sticky services inflation. The FOMC's March 19-20 meeting and updated dot plot represent the pivotal near-term catalyst, potentially clarifying the policy path amid resilient nonfarm payrolls and consumer spending. Volatility remains subdued near VIX 13, reflecting broad trader consensus on soft-landing optimism.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 has surged to fresh all-time highs above 5,250 this week, propelled by robust artificial intelligence-driven earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia, which beat revenue expectations amid soaring data center demand. February CPI inflation eased to 3.2% year-over-year, reinforcing trader bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June, with market-implied odds via fed funds futures pricing three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Treasury 10-year yields have dipped below 4.1%, supporting equity risk appetite despite sticky services inflation. The FOMC's March 19-20 meeting and updated dot plot represent the pivotal near-term catalyst, potentially clarifying the policy path amid resilient nonfarm payrolls and consumer spending. Volatility remains subdued near VIX 13, reflecting broad trader consensus on soft-landing optimism.

The S&P 500 has surged to fresh all-time highs above 5,250 this week, propelled by robust artificial intelligence-driven earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia, which beat revenue expectations amid soaring data center demand. February CPI inflation eased to 3.2% year-over-year, reinforcing trader bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in June, with market-implied odds via fed funds futures pricing three 25-basis-point reductions in 2024. Treasury 10-year yields have dipped below 4.1%, supporting equity risk appetite despite sticky services inflation. The FOMC's March 19-20 meeting and updated dot plot represent the pivotal near-term catalyst, potentially clarifying the policy path amid resilient nonfarm payrolls and consumer spending. Volatility remains subdued near VIX 13, reflecting broad trader consensus on soft-landing optimism.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑ $6,800" at 100%, followed by "↓ $6,600" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?" has generated $621.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?" is "↑ $6,800" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ $6,600" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.