**Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 striking down Trump administration's IEEPA-based tariffs on Chinese imports has driven the effective U.S. tariff rate down to around 10%, per analyses from Wharton Budget Model (10.3% through January) and Tax Foundation (6.7% post-ruling), cementing trader consensus at 100% for the 5–15% bin as of March 31.** This follows 2025 escalations—including 10% Section 122 tariffs and reciprocal duties—that peaked higher before legal challenges, temporary truces like the May 90-day reduction, and a November trade deal partially suspending retaliatory measures. Remaining Section 301 and 232 tariffs sustain the current low-teens average on Chinese goods. Reversal would require new executive orders via alternative authorities, congressional action, or USTR announcements, though procedural hurdles and market stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,180,007 Vol.
$1,180,007 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
No
5–15%
Yes
15–25%
No
25–35%
No
35%+
No
$1,180,007 Vol.
$1,180,007 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$90,823 Vol.
No
5–15%
$269,863 Vol.
Yes
15–25%
$542,645 Vol.
No
25–35%
$151,657 Vol.
No
35%+
$125,020 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.**Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 striking down Trump administration's IEEPA-based tariffs on Chinese imports has driven the effective U.S. tariff rate down to around 10%, per analyses from Wharton Budget Model (10.3% through January) and Tax Foundation (6.7% post-ruling), cementing trader consensus at 100% for the 5–15% bin as of March 31.** This follows 2025 escalations—including 10% Section 122 tariffs and reciprocal duties—that peaked higher before legal challenges, temporary truces like the May 90-day reduction, and a November trade deal partially suspending retaliatory measures. Remaining Section 301 and 232 tariffs sustain the current low-teens average on Chinese goods. Reversal would require new executive orders via alternative authorities, congressional action, or USTR announcements, though procedural hurdles and market stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,180,007End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.**Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 striking down Trump administration's IEEPA-based tariffs on Chinese imports has driven the effective U.S. tariff rate down to around 10%, per analyses from Wharton Budget Model (10.3% through January) and Tax Foundation (6.7% post-ruling), cementing trader consensus at 100% for the 5–15% bin as of March 31.** This follows 2025 escalations—including 10% Section 122 tariffs and reciprocal duties—that peaked higher before legal challenges, temporary truces like the May 90-day reduction, and a November trade deal partially suspending retaliatory measures. Remaining Section 301 and 232 tariffs sustain the current low-teens average on Chinese goods. Reversal would require new executive orders via alternative authorities, congressional action, or USTR announcements, though procedural hurdles and market stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,180,007End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 striking down Trump administration's IEEPA-based tariffs on Chinese imports has driven the effective U.S. tariff rate down to around 10%, per analyses from Wharton Budget Model (10.3% through January) and Tax Foundation (6.7% post-ruling), cementing trader consensus at 100% for the 5–15% bin as of March 31.** This follows 2025 escalations—including 10% Section 122 tariffs and reciprocal duties—that peaked higher before legal challenges, temporary truces like the May 90-day reduction, and a November trade deal partially suspending retaliatory measures. Remaining Section 301 and 232 tariffs sustain the current low-teens average on Chinese goods. Reversal would require new executive orders via alternative authorities, congressional action, or USTR announcements, though procedural hurdles and market stability make shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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