Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. general tariff rate on China at 99.6% probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs like the 10% fentanyl and reciprocal levies, promptly replaced by a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act effective February 24 and lasting through mid-July absent extension. This baseline stacks minimally with standard MFN duties for non-targeted goods, yielding an effective general rate around 10–13%, confirmed stable through recent USTR updates and no intervening executive actions. China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes add tension ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, but late-breaking executive orders or Section 301 expansions would be needed to push rates outside this band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$1,175,642 Vol.
$1,175,642 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
100%
15–25%
<1%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
$1,175,642 Vol.
$1,175,642 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$90,823 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$269,863 Vol.
100%
15–25%
$542,395 Vol.
<1%
25–35%
$150,652 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$125,020 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. general tariff rate on China at 99.6% probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs like the 10% fentanyl and reciprocal levies, promptly replaced by a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act effective February 24 and lasting through mid-July absent extension. This baseline stacks minimally with standard MFN duties for non-targeted goods, yielding an effective general rate around 10–13%, confirmed stable through recent USTR updates and no intervening executive actions. China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes add tension ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, but late-breaking executive orders or Section 301 expansions would be needed to push rates outside this band.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,175,642End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. general tariff rate on China at 99.6% probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs like the 10% fentanyl and reciprocal levies, promptly replaced by a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act effective February 24 and lasting through mid-July absent extension. This baseline stacks minimally with standard MFN duties for non-targeted goods, yielding an effective general rate around 10–13%, confirmed stable through recent USTR updates and no intervening executive actions. China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes add tension ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, but late-breaking executive orders or Section 301 expansions would be needed to push rates outside this band.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,175,642End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. general tariff rate on China at 99.6% probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs like the 10% fentanyl and reciprocal levies, promptly replaced by a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act effective February 24 and lasting through mid-July absent extension. This baseline stacks minimally with standard MFN duties for non-targeted goods, yielding an effective general rate around 10–13%, confirmed stable through recent USTR updates and no intervening executive actions. China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes add tension ahead of a potential Trump-Xi summit, but late-breaking executive orders or Section 301 expansions would be needed to push rates outside this band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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