Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by a Supreme Court ruling on February 20 invalidating higher tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which reverted effective rates to longstanding Section 301 levels around 12% plus a temporary 10% global baseline under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24. No escalatory executive actions have materialized since USTR announcements on forced labor and excess capacity threats on March 11–12, stabilizing the weighted average near 10%. This commanding position reflects de-escalation absent new trade war catalysts, though a late presidential memorandum, Section 122 hike to 15%, or confirmed Section 301 expansions before resolution could shift odds upward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated10
5–15% 96.5%
15–25% 2.3%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$720,220 Vol.
$720,220 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.5%
15–25% 2.3%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$720,220 Vol.
$720,220 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$75,660 Vol.
1%
5–15%
$72,626 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$319,810 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$140,225 Vol.
1%
35%+
$111,898 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by a Supreme Court ruling on February 20 invalidating higher tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which reverted effective rates to longstanding Section 301 levels around 12% plus a temporary 10% global baseline under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24. No escalatory executive actions have materialized since USTR announcements on forced labor and excess capacity threats on March 11–12, stabilizing the weighted average near 10%. This commanding position reflects de-escalation absent new trade war catalysts, though a late presidential memorandum, Section 122 hike to 15%, or confirmed Section 301 expansions before resolution could shift odds upward.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$720,220End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by a Supreme Court ruling on February 20 invalidating higher tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which reverted effective rates to longstanding Section 301 levels around 12% plus a temporary 10% global baseline under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24. No escalatory executive actions have materialized since USTR announcements on forced labor and excess capacity threats on March 11–12, stabilizing the weighted average near 10%. This commanding position reflects de-escalation absent new trade war catalysts, though a late presidential memorandum, Section 122 hike to 15%, or confirmed Section 301 expansions before resolution could shift odds upward.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$720,220End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, driven by a Supreme Court ruling on February 20 invalidating higher tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which reverted effective rates to longstanding Section 301 levels around 12% plus a temporary 10% global baseline under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24. No escalatory executive actions have materialized since USTR announcements on forced labor and excess capacity threats on March 11–12, stabilizing the weighted average near 10%. This commanding position reflects de-escalation absent new trade war catalysts, though a late presidential memorandum, Section 122 hike to 15%, or confirmed Section 301 expansions before resolution could shift odds upward.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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