Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96%, reflecting the Trump administration's February 2026 replacement of invalidated IEEPA tariffs with a temporary 10% Section 122 import surcharge on most imports, including from China, effective through mid-July absent extension. Recent analyses, including Wharton's March 16 update estimating an overall effective rate near 10.3%, and Yale's March 9 assessment at 10.5%, confirm stability with no USTR proclamations, executive orders, or trade negotiations altering the general rate in the past 30 days. This commanding position could face challenge from a late-breaking executive action hiking reciprocal tariffs, a court ruling on Section 122 challenges, or clarified data pushing the average outside the band by March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated10
5–15% 96.9%
15–25% 2.3%
25–35% <1%
35%+ <1%
$1,141,387 Vol.
$1,141,387 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.9%
15–25% 2.3%
25–35% <1%
35%+ <1%
$1,141,387 Vol.
$1,141,387 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$80,130 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$261,482 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$535,118 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$144,807 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$119,850 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96%, reflecting the Trump administration's February 2026 replacement of invalidated IEEPA tariffs with a temporary 10% Section 122 import surcharge on most imports, including from China, effective through mid-July absent extension. Recent analyses, including Wharton's March 16 update estimating an overall effective rate near 10.3%, and Yale's March 9 assessment at 10.5%, confirm stability with no USTR proclamations, executive orders, or trade negotiations altering the general rate in the past 30 days. This commanding position could face challenge from a late-breaking executive action hiking reciprocal tariffs, a court ruling on Section 122 challenges, or clarified data pushing the average outside the band by March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,141,387End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96%, reflecting the Trump administration's February 2026 replacement of invalidated IEEPA tariffs with a temporary 10% Section 122 import surcharge on most imports, including from China, effective through mid-July absent extension. Recent analyses, including Wharton's March 16 update estimating an overall effective rate near 10.3%, and Yale's March 9 assessment at 10.5%, confirm stability with no USTR proclamations, executive orders, or trade negotiations altering the general rate in the past 30 days. This commanding position could face challenge from a late-breaking executive action hiking reciprocal tariffs, a court ruling on Section 122 challenges, or clarified data pushing the average outside the band by March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,141,387End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96%, reflecting the Trump administration's February 2026 replacement of invalidated IEEPA tariffs with a temporary 10% Section 122 import surcharge on most imports, including from China, effective through mid-July absent extension. Recent analyses, including Wharton's March 16 update estimating an overall effective rate near 10.3%, and Yale's March 9 assessment at 10.5%, confirm stability with no USTR proclamations, executive orders, or trade negotiations altering the general rate in the past 30 days. This commanding position could face challenge from a late-breaking executive action hiking reciprocal tariffs, a court ruling on Section 122 challenges, or clarified data pushing the average outside the band by March 31 resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions