The Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese imports have settled at an effective average rate of around 10% following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal duties, replaced by a temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff effective February 24 and lasting until late July. Recent trackers from Yale Budget Lab and trade compliance hubs as of March 24 confirm no policy shifts, with USTR's March 12 Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity still in early stages ahead of April hearings. Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices this status quo in the 5–15% range, as procedural requirements delay escalations. A surprise executive order or rapid tariff imposition could challenge this, though procedural hurdles make it unlikely by March 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated10
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.1%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,026,993 Vol.
$1,026,993 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.6%
15–25% 2.1%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,026,993 Vol.
$1,026,993 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$76,857 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$172,365 Vol.
97%
15–25%
$519,232 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$143,069 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$118,721 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.The Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese imports have settled at an effective average rate of around 10% following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal duties, replaced by a temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff effective February 24 and lasting until late July. Recent trackers from Yale Budget Lab and trade compliance hubs as of March 24 confirm no policy shifts, with USTR's March 12 Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity still in early stages ahead of April hearings. Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices this status quo in the 5–15% range, as procedural requirements delay escalations. A surprise executive order or rapid tariff imposition could challenge this, though procedural hurdles make it unlikely by March 31.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,026,993End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.The Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese imports have settled at an effective average rate of around 10% following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal duties, replaced by a temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff effective February 24 and lasting until late July. Recent trackers from Yale Budget Lab and trade compliance hubs as of March 24 confirm no policy shifts, with USTR's March 12 Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity still in early stages ahead of April hearings. Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices this status quo in the 5–15% range, as procedural requirements delay escalations. A surprise executive order or rapid tariff imposition could challenge this, though procedural hurdles make it unlikely by March 31.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,026,993End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese imports have settled at an effective average rate of around 10% following the Supreme Court's February 20, 2026, ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based reciprocal duties, replaced by a temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff effective February 24 and lasting until late July. Recent trackers from Yale Budget Lab and trade compliance hubs as of March 24 confirm no policy shifts, with USTR's March 12 Section 301 investigations into forced labor and excess capacity still in early stages ahead of April hearings. Trader consensus overwhelmingly prices this status quo in the 5–15% range, as procedural requirements delay escalations. A surprise executive order or rapid tariff imposition could challenge this, though procedural hurdles make it unlikely by March 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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