Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, reflecting the current effective average rate of around 10% sustained by recent executive orders suspending reciprocal increases and a February Supreme Court ruling that net-reduced duties under Section 301 and IEEPA authorities. Over the past week, USTR statements affirmed plans to maintain existing levels amid ongoing trade probes from China, with no announcements of hikes despite earlier 2025 escalations partially rolled back via November deals. This stability aligns with Wharton and Tax Foundation estimates projecting 5.6–10.3% through early 2026, barring expirations. A late-breaking executive action, renewed IEEPA invocation, or diplomatic breakdown could shift odds higher, though procedural timelines make escalation unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated10
5–15% 96.3%
15–25% 2.5%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,134,004 Vol.
$1,134,004 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
96%
15–25%
3%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.3%
15–25% 2.5%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,134,004 Vol.
$1,134,004 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$79,397 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$257,148 Vol.
96%
15–25%
$533,503 Vol.
3%
25–35%
$144,343 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$119,618 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, reflecting the current effective average rate of around 10% sustained by recent executive orders suspending reciprocal increases and a February Supreme Court ruling that net-reduced duties under Section 301 and IEEPA authorities. Over the past week, USTR statements affirmed plans to maintain existing levels amid ongoing trade probes from China, with no announcements of hikes despite earlier 2025 escalations partially rolled back via November deals. This stability aligns with Wharton and Tax Foundation estimates projecting 5.6–10.3% through early 2026, barring expirations. A late-breaking executive action, renewed IEEPA invocation, or diplomatic breakdown could shift odds higher, though procedural timelines make escalation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,134,004End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, reflecting the current effective average rate of around 10% sustained by recent executive orders suspending reciprocal increases and a February Supreme Court ruling that net-reduced duties under Section 301 and IEEPA authorities. Over the past week, USTR statements affirmed plans to maintain existing levels amid ongoing trade probes from China, with no announcements of hikes despite earlier 2025 escalations partially rolled back via November deals. This stability aligns with Wharton and Tax Foundation estimates projecting 5.6–10.3% through early 2026, barring expirations. A late-breaking executive action, renewed IEEPA invocation, or diplomatic breakdown could shift odds higher, though procedural timelines make escalation unlikely before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,134,004End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China by March 31, reflecting the current effective average rate of around 10% sustained by recent executive orders suspending reciprocal increases and a February Supreme Court ruling that net-reduced duties under Section 301 and IEEPA authorities. Over the past week, USTR statements affirmed plans to maintain existing levels amid ongoing trade probes from China, with no announcements of hikes despite earlier 2025 escalations partially rolled back via November deals. This stability aligns with Wharton and Tax Foundation estimates projecting 5.6–10.3% through early 2026, barring expirations. A late-breaking executive action, renewed IEEPA invocation, or diplomatic breakdown could shift odds higher, though procedural timelines make escalation unlikely before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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