Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.3% implied probability on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implemented in February 2026 after a Supreme Court ruling curtailed higher IEEPA-based rates, establishing an effective rate around 10% on Chinese imports. Mid-March Paris trade talks involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng set the stage for President Trump's Beijing visit starting that day, with no signals of adjustment amid China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes against recent U.S. investigations. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise executive order hiking tariffs above 15%, pre-summit concessions dropping below 5%, or escalation, though pricing reflects entrenched stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated10
5–15% 96.3%
15–25% 2.5%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,133,998 Vol.
$1,133,998 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
<1%
5–15%
96%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%+
<1%
5–15% 96.3%
15–25% 2.5%
<5% <1%
25–35% <1%
$1,133,998 Vol.
$1,133,998 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<5%
$79,396 Vol.
<1%
5–15%
$257,148 Vol.
96%
15–25%
$533,500 Vol.
2%
25–35%
$144,343 Vol.
<1%
35%+
$119,618 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.3% implied probability on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implemented in February 2026 after a Supreme Court ruling curtailed higher IEEPA-based rates, establishing an effective rate around 10% on Chinese imports. Mid-March Paris trade talks involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng set the stage for President Trump's Beijing visit starting that day, with no signals of adjustment amid China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes against recent U.S. investigations. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise executive order hiking tariffs above 15%, pre-summit concessions dropping below 5%, or escalation, though pricing reflects entrenched stability.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,133,998End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.3% implied probability on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implemented in February 2026 after a Supreme Court ruling curtailed higher IEEPA-based rates, establishing an effective rate around 10% on Chinese imports. Mid-March Paris trade talks involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng set the stage for President Trump's Beijing visit starting that day, with no signals of adjustment amid China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes against recent U.S. investigations. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise executive order hiking tariffs above 15%, pre-summit concessions dropping below 5%, or escalation, though pricing reflects entrenched stability.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$1,133,998End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on China at 96.3% implied probability on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implemented in February 2026 after a Supreme Court ruling curtailed higher IEEPA-based rates, establishing an effective rate around 10% on Chinese imports. Mid-March Paris trade talks involving Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, USTR Jamieson Greer, and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng set the stage for President Trump's Beijing visit starting that day, with no signals of adjustment amid China's March 27 retaliatory trade probes against recent U.S. investigations. Scenarios challenging this include a surprise executive order hiking tariffs above 15%, pre-summit concessions dropping below 5%, or escalation, though pricing reflects entrenched stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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