**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing remains heavily weighted against near-term resumption, reflecting the gap between the October 2025 presidential directive and practical, legal, and diplomatic constraints.** President Trump’s late-October 2025 social-media instruction to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—citing alleged low-yield or supercritical activity by those states—initially moved discussion, yet senior officials quickly clarified that any near-term activity would involve non-critical system or hydronuclear experiments rather than full-yield explosive detonations. The Nevada National Security Site retains the technical capacity for underground tests, but historical lead times of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, state-level opposition, and the absence of a formal policy shift have kept implied probabilities low. Internal NNSA planning references execution of the directive by the end of 2028, while lab directors continue annual stockpile certifications without calling for explosive tests. Upcoming congressional budget and authorization debates, any new compliance-report findings, or diplomatic developments with Beijing or Moscow could still shift timelines, but traders currently price a meaningful explosive test before late 2026 or early 2027 as unlikely.