Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$74,935 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US president, US secretary of state or official statements from the White House officially call for Israel to establish a ceasefire between themselves and Hamas in Gaza between January 18, 2023 and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, calls for a humanitarian pause will not be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US president, US secretary of state, the White House, and/or their official representatives.
Volume
$74,935
End Date
Feb 29, 2024
Created At
Jan 19, 2024, 4:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US president, US secretary of state or official statements from the White House officially call for Israel to establish a ceasefire between themselves and Hamas in Gaza between January 18, 2023 and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, calls for a humanitarian pause will not be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US president, US secretary of state, the White House, and/or their official representatives.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" has generated $74.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$74,935 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US president, US secretary of state or official statements from the White House officially call for Israel to establish a ceasefire between themselves and Hamas in Gaza between January 18, 2023 and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, calls for a humanitarian pause will not be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US president, US secretary of state, the White House, and/or their official representatives.
Volume
$74,935
End Date
Feb 29, 2024
Created At
Jan 19, 2024, 4:53 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US president, US secretary of state or official statements from the White House officially call for Israel to establish a ceasefire between themselves and Hamas in Gaza between January 18, 2023 and February 29, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, calls for a humanitarian pause will not be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US president, US secretary of state, the White House, and/or their official representatives.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" has generated $74.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 19, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US call for Gaza ceasefire before March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.