Trader consensus on Seoul's April precipitation reflects deep uncertainty inherent in seasonal forecasts, with implied probabilities tightly clustered around 45-75mm bins that bracket the Korea Meteorological Administration's historical 1991-2020 average of approximately 65mm. This positioning stems from negligible accumulation on April 1 amid a dry start following late-March spring rains, coupled with ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning from lingering La Niña influences, which typically support average totals from migratory frontal systems and baroclinic zones. Higher bins like 75mm+ (34.5%) gain slight edge from potential intensified showers tied to above-normal 2026 temperatures projected by KMA, while lower outcomes (<40mm at 29.5%) hedge against prolonged dry spells common in early spring variability (standard deviations often exceeding 50mm). Key differentiators include rain event frequency and moisture transport; watch KMA weekly outlooks and ECMWF ensemble updates for shifts as the month advances.