Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC's survival through 2026, driven by the cartel's demonstrated resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit on May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in OPEC+, reaffirmed market stability commitments via a May 3 output adjustment—rising 188,000 barrels per day—despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and slashed 2026 global oil demand forecasts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects historical precedents of member departures without full dissolution. Potential challenges include further exits by quota-cheating nations like Iraq or a Saudi-led production policy reversal, though recent virtual meetings signal sustained coordination ahead of June reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,734 Vol.
$16,734 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC's survival through 2026, driven by the cartel's demonstrated resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit on May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in OPEC+, reaffirmed market stability commitments via a May 3 output adjustment—rising 188,000 barrels per day—despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and slashed 2026 global oil demand forecasts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects historical precedents of member departures without full dissolution. Potential challenges include further exits by quota-cheating nations like Iraq or a Saudi-led production policy reversal, though recent virtual meetings signal sustained coordination ahead of June reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC's survival through 2026, driven by the cartel's demonstrated resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit on May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in OPEC+, reaffirmed market stability commitments via a May 3 output adjustment—rising 188,000 barrels per day—despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and slashed 2026 global oil demand forecasts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects historical precedents of member departures without full dissolution. Potential challenges include further exits by quota-cheating nations like Iraq or a Saudi-led production policy reversal, though recent virtual meetings signal sustained coordination ahead of June reviews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$16,734End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 90.5% implied probability to OPEC's survival through 2026, driven by the cartel's demonstrated resilience following the United Arab Emirates' exit on May 1 amid frustrations over production quotas. Core members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others in OPEC+, reaffirmed market stability commitments via a May 3 output adjustment—rising 188,000 barrels per day—despite Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and slashed 2026 global oil demand forecasts. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects historical precedents of member departures without full dissolution. Potential challenges include further exits by quota-cheating nations like Iraq or a Saudi-led production policy reversal, though recent virtual meetings signal sustained coordination ahead of June reviews.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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