The 2026 NCAA men's tournament Final Four is set after all Elite Eight games concluded on March 30, featuring top seeds Arizona and Michigan alongside UConn and Illinois. UConn staged a 19-point comeback to edge No. 1 Duke 73-72 on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Braylon Mullins, while Michigan cruised past No. 6 Tennessee 95-62 in dominant fashion. No. 1 Arizona snapped a decades-long program drought with a 79-64 win over No. 2 Purdue, and No. 3 Illinois dispatched No. 9 Iowa 71-59 in an all-Big Ten clash. Trader consensus leading into regionals favored powerhouses like Michigan and Duke based on tournament momentum and head-to-head edges, but these results highlight March Madness volatility with multiple drought-enders advancing to the April 4 semifinals at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals
NCAA Tournament: Team to make Semifinals
$103,510 Vol.
Arizona
Yes
UConn
Yes
Illinois
Yes
Iowa State
No
Alabama
No
Gonzaga
No
Texas Tech
No
Wisconsin
No
UCLA
No
Ohio State
No
Utah State
No
TCU
No
Miami (Ohio)
No
Texas
No
Santa Clara
No
VCU
No
Northern Iowa
No
McNeese
No
Yale
No
Sam Houston
No
Utah Valley
No
Troy
No
UMBC
No
Howard
No
Kansas
No
Tennessee
No
Miami (FL)
No
Clemson
No
Villanova
No
BYU
No
UCF
No
South Florida
No
Wright State
No
Furman
No
Duke
No
Michigan
Yes
Florida
No
Michigan State
No
Nebraska
No
Virginia
No
Arkansas
No
St. John’s
No
Kentucky
No
Saint Louis
No
Georgia
No
NC State
No
Texas A&M
No
Missouri
No
Oklahoma
No
Akron
No
Hofstra
No
North Dakota State
No
Siena
No
Idaho
No
Southern
No
Lehigh
No
Houston
No
Purdue
No
Louisville
No
Vanderbilt
No
North Carolina
No
Iowa
No
Saint Mary’s
No
High Point
No
UC Irvine
No
Tennessee State
No
LIU
No
Queens
No
Cal Baptist
No
Penn
No
Prairie View A&M
No
Kennesaw State
No
Hawaii
No
$103,510 Vol.
Arizona
Yes
UConn
Yes
Illinois
Yes
Iowa State
No
Alabama
No
Gonzaga
No
Texas Tech
No
Wisconsin
No
UCLA
No
Ohio State
No
Utah State
No
TCU
No
Miami (Ohio)
No
Texas
No
Santa Clara
No
VCU
No
Northern Iowa
No
McNeese
No
Yale
No
Sam Houston
No
Utah Valley
No
Troy
No
UMBC
No
Howard
No
Kansas
No
Tennessee
No
Miami (FL)
No
Clemson
No
Villanova
No
BYU
No
UCF
No
South Florida
No
Wright State
No
Furman
No
Duke
No
Michigan
Yes
Florida
No
Michigan State
No
Nebraska
No
Virginia
No
Arkansas
No
St. John’s
No
Kentucky
No
Saint Louis
No
Georgia
No
NC State
No
Texas A&M
No
Missouri
No
Oklahoma
No
Akron
No
Hofstra
No
North Dakota State
No
Siena
No
Idaho
No
Southern
No
Lehigh
No
Houston
No
Purdue
No
Louisville
No
Vanderbilt
No
North Carolina
No
Iowa
No
Saint Mary’s
No
High Point
No
UC Irvine
No
Tennessee State
No
LIU
No
Queens
No
Cal Baptist
No
Penn
No
Prairie View A&M
No
Kennesaw State
No
Hawaii
No
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraws, disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament semifinals matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 7:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to advance to the semifinals of the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament (e.g. they are eliminated, withdraws, disqualified), the associated market will resolve to "No".
If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament semifinals matchups have not been declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The 2026 NCAA men's tournament Final Four is set after all Elite Eight games concluded on March 30, featuring top seeds Arizona and Michigan alongside UConn and Illinois. UConn staged a 19-point comeback to edge No. 1 Duke 73-72 on a buzzer-beating three-pointer by Braylon Mullins, while Michigan cruised past No. 6 Tennessee 95-62 in dominant fashion. No. 1 Arizona snapped a decades-long program drought with a 79-64 win over No. 2 Purdue, and No. 3 Illinois dispatched No. 9 Iowa 71-59 in an all-Big Ten clash. Trader consensus leading into regionals favored powerhouses like Michigan and Duke based on tournament momentum and head-to-head edges, but these results highlight March Madness volatility with multiple drought-enders advancing to the April 4 semifinals at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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