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Sports·NCAA CBB

NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player

Market icon
Sports·NCAA CBB

NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player

Keaton Wagler 10.4%

Cameron Boozer <1%

Braden Smith <1%

Kingston Flemings <1%

Polymarket

$169,574 Vol.

Keaton Wagler 10.4%

Cameron Boozer <1%

Braden Smith <1%

Kingston Flemings <1%

Polymarket

$169,574 Vol.

Keaton Wagler

$833 Vol.

10%

Cameron Boozer

$4,541 Vol.

1%

Braden Smith

$3,060 Vol.

1%

Kingston Flemings

$2,717 Vol.

1%

Joshua Jefferson

$43,333 Vol.

1%

Jeremy Fears Jr

$2,000 Vol.

1%

Darius Acuff Jr

$4,748 Vol.

<1%

JT Toppin

$46,010 Vol.

<1%

Caleb Wilson

$2,910 Vol.

<1%

AJ Dybantsa

$59,421 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Outstanding Player of the Tournament award at the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler's 25-point Elite Eight outburst against Iowa, earning him South Region Most Outstanding Player honors, has surged him to the top of trader consensus at 10.3% implied probability for NCAA Tournament MOP, reflecting the Fighting Illini's Final Four berth alongside UConn, Arizona, and Michigan. His unexpected rise from overlooked recruit to Big Ten Freshman of the Year underscores tournament dominance, with 30 double-figure games and key scoring in March Madness. Trailing contenders like Duke's Cameron Boozer (0.7%) and Purdue's Braden Smith (0.7%) faded after Elite Eight exits, while Houston's Kingston Flemings (0.6%) bowed out in the Sweet 16, leaving a wide-open field hinging on Final Four outcomes, historical MOP trends favoring champions, and remaining stars' matchups.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Outstanding Player of the Tournament award at the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$169,574
End Date
Apr 7, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Outstanding Player of the Tournament award at the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Outstanding Player of the Tournament award at the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Illinois freshman Keaton Wagler's 25-point Elite Eight outburst against Iowa, earning him South Region Most Outstanding Player honors, has surged him to the top of trader consensus at 10.3% implied probability for NCAA Tournament MOP, reflecting the Fighting Illini's Final Four berth alongside UConn, Arizona, and Michigan. His unexpected rise from overlooked recruit to Big Ten Freshman of the Year underscores tournament dominance, with 30 double-figure games and key scoring in March Madness. Trailing contenders like Duke's Cameron Boozer (0.7%) and Purdue's Braden Smith (0.7%) faded after Elite Eight exits, while Houston's Kingston Flemings (0.6%) bowed out in the Sweet 16, leaving a wide-open field hinging on Final Four outcomes, historical MOP trends favoring champions, and remaining stars' matchups.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Outstanding Player of the Tournament award at the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$169,574
End Date
Apr 7, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 Outstanding Player of the Tournament award at the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NCAA rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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Will Fred Hoiberg win the Men's 2026 Naismith Coach of the Year award?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Keaton Wagler" at 10%, followed by "Cameron Boozer" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player " has generated $169.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player ," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player " is "Keaton Wagler" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Cameron Boozer" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "NCAA Tournament: Most Outstanding Player " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.