Trader consensus reflects a tightly contested NL Comeback Player of the Year race, with Michael Harris II, Sandy Alcantara, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Porter Hodge, Sean Manaea, and Ezequiel Tovar clustered at 35-36% implied probabilities amid early 2026 developments. Alcantara's vintage 7-inning Opening Day gem on March 27 signals a strong post-Tommy John rebound after a 5.36 ERA in 2025, while Harris II notched a two-run homer and game-tying single over the March 28-29 weekend following a promising spring with improved walk and chase rates. Wheeler builds toward his season debut post-thoracic outlet surgery that sidelined him late 2025, Woodruff ramps up cautiously after shoulder surgery and a strong partial 2025 return truncated by lat strain, and Hodge lands on the injured list retroactive to March 22 with elbow trouble despite rookie relief promise. These injury recoveries and initial hot starts fuel the even split, as traders weigh long-term health, innings loads, and sustained production over the marathon season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMichael Harris II 36%
Sandy Alcantara 36%
Zack Wheeler 36%
Brandon Woodruff 36%
$15,728 Vol.
$15,728 Vol.
Michael Harris II
36%
Sandy Alcantara
36%
Zack Wheeler
36%
Brandon Woodruff
36%
Porter Hodge
35%
Sean Manaea
35%
Shota Imanaga
28%
Tanner Scott
27%
O'Neil Cruz
15%
Ezequiel Tovar
35%
Michael Harris II 36%
Sandy Alcantara 36%
Zack Wheeler 36%
Brandon Woodruff 36%
$15,728 Vol.
$15,728 Vol.
Michael Harris II
36%
Sandy Alcantara
36%
Zack Wheeler
36%
Brandon Woodruff
36%
Porter Hodge
35%
Sean Manaea
35%
Shota Imanaga
28%
Tanner Scott
27%
O'Neil Cruz
15%
Ezequiel Tovar
35%
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus reflects a tightly contested NL Comeback Player of the Year race, with Michael Harris II, Sandy Alcantara, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Porter Hodge, Sean Manaea, and Ezequiel Tovar clustered at 35-36% implied probabilities amid early 2026 developments. Alcantara's vintage 7-inning Opening Day gem on March 27 signals a strong post-Tommy John rebound after a 5.36 ERA in 2025, while Harris II notched a two-run homer and game-tying single over the March 28-29 weekend following a promising spring with improved walk and chase rates. Wheeler builds toward his season debut post-thoracic outlet surgery that sidelined him late 2025, Woodruff ramps up cautiously after shoulder surgery and a strong partial 2025 return truncated by lat strain, and Hodge lands on the injured list retroactive to March 22 with elbow trouble despite rookie relief promise. These injury recoveries and initial hot starts fuel the even split, as traders weigh long-term health, innings loads, and sustained production over the marathon season.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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