Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Name: Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Start: 2025-11-20T23:56:12.093Z
End: 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

4.4-4.6m sq km 38.3%

<4m sq km 30%

4.6-4.8m sq km 12%

4.0-4.2m sq km 9.5%

$26,600 Vol.

Oct 1, 2026

<4m sq km

$22,986 Vol.

30%

4.0-4.2m sq km

$993 Vol.

10%

4.2-4.4m sq km

$495 Vol.

10%

4.4-4.6m sq km

$545 Vol.

38%

4.6-4.8m sq km

$749 Vol.

16%

4.8-5m sq km

$379 Vol.

5m+ sq km

$453 Vol.

4.4-4.6m sq km 38.3%

<4m sq km 30%

4.6-4.8m sq km 12%

4.0-4.2m sq km 9.5%

$26,600 Vol.

Oct 1, 2026

<4m sq km

$22,986 Vol.

30%

4.0-4.2m sq km

$993 Vol.

10%

4.2-4.4m sq km

$495 Vol.

10%

4.4-4.6m sq km

$545 Vol.

38%

4.6-4.8m sq km

$749 Vol.

16%

4.8-5m sq km

$379 Vol.

5m+ sq km

$453 Vol.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Trader consensus leans toward a moderate Arctic sea ice minimum of 4.4-4.6 million square kilometers this September (38% implied probability), closely trailed by below 4 million (31%), driven by NSIDC data showing current extent at 5.5 million square kilometers—tracking 20% below the 1981-2010 average but stabilizing short of record-low pace. Key differentiators include late-summer atmospheric patterns: persistent high-pressure ridges could accelerate melt toward sub-4 million extents by enhancing solar insolation and warm-air advection, while neutral or cyclonic flows favor the 4.4-4.6 range aligning with Sea Ice Prediction Network ensemble medians around 4.5 million. Thin first-year ice dominates, amplifying vulnerability to ocean heat fluxes, with NOAA GFS model updates through August pivotal for resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 19, 2026, 12:39 AM UTC

Will the maximum Arctic sea ice extent this winter be between 14.2m & 14.4m square kilometers?

88%

Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?

77%

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

43%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 38%, followed by "<4m sq km" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" has generated $26.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" is "4.4-4.6m sq km" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<4m sq km" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $26.6K traded on “Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 38¢ for "4.4-4.6m sq km" in the "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 38% chance that "4.4-4.6m sq km" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 38¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 62¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Oct 1, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?" market has a growing discussion of 6 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

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