Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models pinpoint a tight spread of 78-88°F for Atlanta's March 22 high, fueling trader consensus around 80-87°F bins with probabilities clustered at 24-26.5%. The National Weather Service official guidance leans toward 82°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow, but divergent runs highlight uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover from a lingering weak front, differentiating cooler 80-81°F outcomes (highest at 26.5%) from hotter 86-87°F scenarios (24.5%). Historical March norms near 68°F underscore this anomalous warmth, with 18z model updates today likely to sway market-implied odds as traders weigh ensemble means against observed 500mb height anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Atlanta on March 22?
Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 22?
86-87°F 26%
84-85°F 22%
88-89°F 21%
80-81°F 20%
73°F or below
4%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
11%
92°F or higher
15%
86-87°F 26%
84-85°F 22%
88-89°F 21%
80-81°F 20%
73°F or below
4%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
9%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
24%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
11%
92°F or higher
15%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models pinpoint a tight spread of 78-88°F for Atlanta's March 22 high, fueling trader consensus around 80-87°F bins with probabilities clustered at 24-26.5%. The National Weather Service official guidance leans toward 82°F under a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering warm southerly flow, but divergent runs highlight uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover from a lingering weak front, differentiating cooler 80-81°F outcomes (highest at 26.5%) from hotter 86-87°F scenarios (24.5%). Historical March norms near 68°F underscore this anomalous warmth, with 18z model updates today likely to sway market-implied odds as traders weigh ensemble means against observed 500mb height anomalies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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