Trader consensus on Polymarket gives 68% implied probability for Meta (META) closing above $600 by March 31, propelled by the company's blockbuster Q4 2024 earnings beat on January 29—$40.1 billion revenue versus $39.8 billion expected—and upbeat guidance for $64-72 billion in 2025 AI capex, signaling aggressive investments in Llama models and data centers. Shares have surged 20% year-to-date to around $590, buoyed by robust ad revenue growth amid e-commerce tailwinds, though Reality Labs losses widened to $4.7 billion. Competitive pressures from Microsoft and Google in AI intensify scrutiny, while macro risks like the Fed's March 19 meeting loom; no Meta-specific catalysts are slated before quarter-end, leaving momentum as the key driver amid Nasdaq volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$28,288 Vol.
$540
96%
$560
91%
$580
76%
$600
51%
$620
25%
$640
10%
$660
6%
$680
5%
$700
6%
$720
2%
$740
5%
$760
9%
$780
<1%
$28,288 Vol.
$540
96%
$560
91%
$580
76%
$600
51%
$620
25%
$640
10%
$660
6%
$680
5%
$700
6%
$720
2%
$740
5%
$760
9%
$780
<1%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/META/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives 68% implied probability for Meta (META) closing above $600 by March 31, propelled by the company's blockbuster Q4 2024 earnings beat on January 29—$40.1 billion revenue versus $39.8 billion expected—and upbeat guidance for $64-72 billion in 2025 AI capex, signaling aggressive investments in Llama models and data centers. Shares have surged 20% year-to-date to around $590, buoyed by robust ad revenue growth amid e-commerce tailwinds, though Reality Labs losses widened to $4.7 billion. Competitive pressures from Microsoft and Google in AI intensify scrutiny, while macro risks like the Fed's March 19 meeting loom; no Meta-specific catalysts are slated before quarter-end, leaving momentum as the key driver amid Nasdaq volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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