Market icon
Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Market icon
Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Apr 30

Dec 31

Apr 30

Dec 31

Polymarket

$7,503,844 Vol.

Polymarket

$7,503,844 Vol.

↑2k

$36,083 Vol.

99%

↑3k

$27,725 Vol.

88%

↑4k

$131,712 Vol.

68%

↑5k

$188,901 Vol.

49%

↑7.5k

$153,685 Vol.

22%

↑10k

$6,474,636 Vol.

17%

↑12.5k

$316,358 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of April 2, 2026, the CDC reports 1,671 confirmed measles cases in the United States, with 1,661 among residents of 33 jurisdictions and 94% outbreak-associated across 17 new outbreaks this year—primarily in states like South Carolina, Utah, and Texas. This surge, following a record 2025, stems from declining MMR vaccination coverage (92.5% among kindergarteners in 2024–2025, down from 95.2% in 2019–2020), enabling rapid community transmission (R0 of 12–18) from global imports among unvaccinated individuals (92% of cases). Hospitalizations affect 5% of patients, with zero deaths so far. Traders should watch weekly CDC updates, state surveillance reports, and vaccination campaigns, as containment efforts could curb further spread through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$7,503,844
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.As of April 2, 2026, the CDC reports 1,671 confirmed measles cases in the United States, with 1,661 among residents of 33 jurisdictions and 94% outbreak-associated across 17 new outbreaks this year—primarily in states like South Carolina, Utah, and Texas. This surge, following a record 2025, stems from declining MMR vaccination coverage (92.5% among kindergarteners in 2024–2025, down from 95.2% in 2019–2020), enabling rapid community transmission (R0 of 12–18) from global imports among unvaccinated individuals (92% of cases). Hospitalizations affect 5% of patients, with zero deaths so far. Traders should watch weekly CDC updates, state surveillance reports, and vaccination campaigns, as containment efforts could curb further spread through year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Volume
$7,503,844
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 1, 2025, 12:56 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑500" at 100%, followed by "↑1k" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" has generated $7.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" is "↑500" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑1k" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.