Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely damaging uranium enrichment infrastructure and related sites. IAEA assessments confirm extensive physical destruction while noting no evidence of a current structured nuclear weapons program, though unresolved safeguards issues and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium persist. Iran has initiated limited reconstruction at some locations, yet these efforts face ongoing monitoring and sanctions constraints. No nuclear test has occurred amid these setbacks, and diplomatic channels remain suspended following the military actions. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% probability to “No” before 2027, reflecting the program’s degraded capacity and the absence of verifiable indicators of imminent testing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
¿Prueba nuclear de Irán antes de 2027?
Sí
$196,107 Vol.
$196,107 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$196,107 Vol.
$196,107 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely damaging uranium enrichment infrastructure and related sites. IAEA assessments confirm extensive physical destruction while noting no evidence of a current structured nuclear weapons program, though unresolved safeguards issues and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium persist. Iran has initiated limited reconstruction at some locations, yet these efforts face ongoing monitoring and sanctions constraints. No nuclear test has occurred amid these setbacks, and diplomatic channels remain suspended following the military actions. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% probability to “No” before 2027, reflecting the program’s degraded capacity and the absence of verifiable indicators of imminent testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$196,107Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely damaging uranium enrichment infrastructure and related sites. IAEA assessments confirm extensive physical destruction while noting no evidence of a current structured nuclear weapons program, though unresolved safeguards issues and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium persist. Iran has initiated limited reconstruction at some locations, yet these efforts face ongoing monitoring and sanctions constraints. No nuclear test has occurred amid these setbacks, and diplomatic channels remain suspended following the military actions. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% probability to “No” before 2027, reflecting the program’s degraded capacity and the absence of verifiable indicators of imminent testing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$196,107Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, severely damaging uranium enrichment infrastructure and related sites. IAEA assessments confirm extensive physical destruction while noting no evidence of a current structured nuclear weapons program, though unresolved safeguards issues and a stockpile of highly enriched uranium persist. Iran has initiated limited reconstruction at some locations, yet these efforts face ongoing monitoring and sanctions constraints. No nuclear test has occurred amid these setbacks, and diplomatic channels remain suspended following the military actions. Trader consensus assigns a 92.5% probability to “No” before 2027, reflecting the program’s degraded capacity and the absence of verifiable indicators of imminent testing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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