Trader sentiment on Polymarket for India annual CPI inflation in 2026 reflects a closely contested field, with the 4.50%+ outcome at 31.5% implied probability narrowly leading bins around 3.75–4.49% (26.5%) and lower ranges (25–26%), underscoring uncertainty amid sticky price pressures. February 2026 CPI rose to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year—up 47 basis points from January's 2.75% under the new 2024=100 base—driven by food and core inflation gains, while West Asia tensions have spiked oil import costs. RBI's February Monetary Policy Committee pegged FY25/26 inflation at 2.1% (Q4: 3.2%), contrasting Fitch's 5.1% FY26/27 call on reweighting and commodities; key differentiators include monsoon outcomes, global risk appetite, and repo rate path. March CPI data due April 13 and the ongoing RBI MPC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4.50%+ 32%
3.75% to 4.49% 27%
2.25% to 2.99% 19%
<0.75% 16%
$57,341 Vol.
$57,341 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
16%
0.75% to 1.49%
5%
1.50% to 2.24%
26%
2.25% to 2.99%
25%
3.00% to 3.74%
10%
3.75% to 4.49%
27%
4.50%+
32%
4.50%+ 32%
3.75% to 4.49% 27%
2.25% to 2.99% 19%
<0.75% 16%
$57,341 Vol.
$57,341 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$632 Vol.
16%
0.75% to 1.49%
$271 Vol.
5%
1.50% to 2.24%
$340 Vol.
26%
2.25% to 2.99%
$22,328 Vol.
25%
3.00% to 3.74%
$375 Vol.
10%
3.75% to 4.49%
$22,735 Vol.
27%
4.50%+
$10,659 Vol.
32%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader sentiment on Polymarket for India annual CPI inflation in 2026 reflects a closely contested field, with the 4.50%+ outcome at 31.5% implied probability narrowly leading bins around 3.75–4.49% (26.5%) and lower ranges (25–26%), underscoring uncertainty amid sticky price pressures. February 2026 CPI rose to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year—up 47 basis points from January's 2.75% under the new 2024=100 base—driven by food and core inflation gains, while West Asia tensions have spiked oil import costs. RBI's February Monetary Policy Committee pegged FY25/26 inflation at 2.1% (Q4: 3.2%), contrasting Fitch's 5.1% FY26/27 call on reweighting and commodities; key differentiators include monsoon outcomes, global risk appetite, and repo rate path. March CPI data due April 13 and the ongoing RBI MPC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$57,341End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader sentiment on Polymarket for India annual CPI inflation in 2026 reflects a closely contested field, with the 4.50%+ outcome at 31.5% implied probability narrowly leading bins around 3.75–4.49% (26.5%) and lower ranges (25–26%), underscoring uncertainty amid sticky price pressures. February 2026 CPI rose to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year—up 47 basis points from January's 2.75% under the new 2024=100 base—driven by food and core inflation gains, while West Asia tensions have spiked oil import costs. RBI's February Monetary Policy Committee pegged FY25/26 inflation at 2.1% (Q4: 3.2%), contrasting Fitch's 5.1% FY26/27 call on reweighting and commodities; key differentiators include monsoon outcomes, global risk appetite, and repo rate path. March CPI data due April 13 and the ongoing RBI MPC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$57,341End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for India annual CPI inflation in 2026 reflects a closely contested field, with the 4.50%+ outcome at 31.5% implied probability narrowly leading bins around 3.75–4.49% (26.5%) and lower ranges (25–26%), underscoring uncertainty amid sticky price pressures. February 2026 CPI rose to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year—up 47 basis points from January's 2.75% under the new 2024=100 base—driven by food and core inflation gains, while West Asia tensions have spiked oil import costs. RBI's February Monetary Policy Committee pegged FY25/26 inflation at 2.1% (Q4: 3.2%), contrasting Fitch's 5.1% FY26/27 call on reweighting and commodities; key differentiators include monsoon outcomes, global risk appetite, and repo rate path. March CPI data due April 13 and the ongoing RBI MPC meeting loom as pivotal catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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