Name: How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?
Start: 2025-02-25T21:29:38.033261Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between February 24 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).


4.0%

3.5%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

3.6%

3.7%

3.8%

3.9%

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

There are no tweets or social media activity provided for analysis at this time. Without data, no significant events or market influences can be summarized.

No Activity Reported

No significant events or updates were reported in the analyzed data. The absence of notable activity suggests a period of stability or lack of major influencing factors at this time.

Market News Update

Due to the absence of specific tweets or data provided for analysis, no clear event or sentiment can be identified. Further information is needed to assess any significant market movements or influencing factors.

Market Event Unclear

There are no tweets or social media activity provided for analysis at this time. Without relevant data, no key events or sentiments can be summarized.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the highest performance during calendar year 2025.

Performance will be measured as the percentage change in each specified security's price during this market's timeframe, calculated by comparing the closing price for the last official trading day prior to this timeframe (December 31, 2024) to the closing price for the last official trading day within this timeframe (December 31, 2025).

All companies that are constituents of the Nasdaq-100 as of market issuance will be eligible for consideration, regardless of whether they are removed before the market's resolution date. Any company added to the index after market creation will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the “Historical Quotes” page for the specified ticker on Nasdaq at: nasdaq.com.

Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied.

If multiple specified companies exhibit exactly the same highest performance, the market will resolve to the company whose ticker appears first in alphabetical order.

If any unspecified company achieves the highest performance during the relevant period, the market will resolve to “Other”.

If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used.

If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used.

Updates to historical prices displayed after resolution will not be considered.

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

3.9%
$20,346 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

3.8%
$9,537 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

3.7%
$6,942 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

3.6%
$13,049 Vol.
1%

3.5%
$379,721 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

3.0%
$250,854 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

2.0%
$25,670 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

1.0%
$42,009 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

Market Context

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

Rules

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

Market Context

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

About

Related

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

3.9%$20,346 Vol.2%0123456789%buy Yes2.5¢buy No98.9¢

3.8%$9,537 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.6¢

3.7%$6,942 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.3¢buy No99.8¢

3.6%$13,049 Vol.1%buy Yes0.9¢buy No99.7¢

3.5%$379,721 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.4¢

3.0%$250,854 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.7¢buy No99.5¢

2.0%$25,670 Vol.1%0123456789%buy Yes0.8¢buy No99.5¢

1.0%$42,009 Vol.<1%0123456789%buy Yes0.5¢buy No99.7¢

Market Context

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

Rules

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

Market Context

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in 2025?

About

Related

3.9%
$20,346 Vol.
2%
0123456789
%

3.8%
$9,537 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

3.7%
$6,942 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%

3.6%
$13,049 Vol.
1%

3.5%
$379,721 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

3.0%
$250,854 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

2.0%
$25,670 Vol.
1%
0123456789
%

1.0%
$42,009 Vol.
<1%
0123456789
%