Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 27°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance forecasting unseasonably warm conditions in the coastal plain under cloudy skies with isolated showers. Ensemble predictions from models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather's 26-27°C projection, align closely, supported by late-afternoon observations nearing 26°C (79°F) as peak heating hours pass. This positioning reflects real capital betting on historical April baselines around 24°C exceeded by current southerly flow patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for a late spike or station-specific measurement variations, though evening rain risks further cooling; final IMS daily maximum report expected soon after midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 1?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 1?
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$68,912 Vol.
$68,912 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$68,912 Vol.
$68,912 Vol.
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 27°C high temperature in Tel Aviv today, driven by the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance forecasting unseasonably warm conditions in the coastal plain under cloudy skies with isolated showers. Ensemble predictions from models like ECMWF and GFS, alongside AccuWeather's 26-27°C projection, align closely, supported by late-afternoon observations nearing 26°C (79°F) as peak heating hours pass. This positioning reflects real capital betting on historical April baselines around 24°C exceeded by current southerly flow patterns. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing for a late spike or station-specific measurement variations, though evening rain risks further cooling; final IMS daily maximum report expected soon after midnight.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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