Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecasts projecting Seoul's April 3 high near 17-18°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, aligning with Gimpo Airport's 21°C max offset by Incheon Airport's cooler 17°C amid early haze. Closely matched implied probabilities for 17°C (28.5%) and 18°C (26.5%) stem from short-range model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing a 2-3°C spread due to uncertain low-level cloudiness and its impact on solar heating during peak afternoon hours. Historical early-April averages of 16-17°C provide baseline context, while above-normal spring warmth adds upside potential to 19°C or higher (16.5%); final clarity awaits today's forecast update and tomorrow's observational data from official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on April 3?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 3?
17°C 28%
18°C 27%
16°C 20%
19°C or higher 17%
$82,168 Vol.
$82,168 Vol.
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
11%
16°C
20%
17°C
28%
18°C
27%
19°C or higher
17%
17°C 28%
18°C 27%
16°C 20%
19°C or higher 17%
$82,168 Vol.
$82,168 Vol.
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
11%
16°C
20%
17°C
28%
18°C
27%
19°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Korea Meteorological Administration's latest short-term forecasts projecting Seoul's April 3 high near 17-18°C under mostly cloudy skies with low precipitation risk, aligning with Gimpo Airport's 21°C max offset by Incheon Airport's cooler 17°C amid early haze. Closely matched implied probabilities for 17°C (28.5%) and 18°C (26.5%) stem from short-range model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS showing a 2-3°C spread due to uncertain low-level cloudiness and its impact on solar heating during peak afternoon hours. Historical early-April averages of 16-17°C provide baseline context, while above-normal spring warmth adds upside potential to 19°C or higher (16.5%); final clarity awaits today's forecast update and tomorrow's observational data from official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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