Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and ensemble models like GFS project a high temperature of 25-27°C in Mexico City on April 3, aligning with trader consensus pricing 26°C at 39.5% and 27°C at 27.5% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects the city's high elevation of 2,240 meters, which enforces an environmental lapse rate limiting daytime peaks despite abundant solar insolation in the early April dry season—climatological average highs hover at 26°C. Recent days, including April 2 observations near 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport (the market's resolution source), show stable patterns under a persistent high-pressure ridge, though a 66% chance of afternoon showers could cap heating. Model agreement is tight, with new hourly airport readings expected to sharpen resolution by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on April 3?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 3?
26°C 39%
27°C 35%
25°C 12%
28°C 11.0%
$13,016 Vol.
$13,016 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
6%
25°C
12%
26°C
39%
27°C
35%
28°C
11%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 39%
27°C 35%
25°C 12%
28°C 11.0%
$13,016 Vol.
$13,016 Vol.
Apr 3, 2026
21°C or below
$1,579 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,553 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,526 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,065 Vol.
6%
25°C
$1,183 Vol.
12%
26°C
$883 Vol.
39%
27°C
$1,639 Vol.
35%
28°C
$744 Vol.
11%
29°C
$1,237 Vol.
2%
30°C
$981 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$639 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and ensemble models like GFS project a high temperature of 25-27°C in Mexico City on April 3, aligning with trader consensus pricing 26°C at 39.5% and 27°C at 27.5% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects the city's high elevation of 2,240 meters, which enforces an environmental lapse rate limiting daytime peaks despite abundant solar insolation in the early April dry season—climatological average highs hover at 26°C. Recent days, including April 2 observations near 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport (the market's resolution source), show stable patterns under a persistent high-pressure ridge, though a 66% chance of afternoon showers could cap heating. Model agreement is tight, with new hourly airport readings expected to sharpen resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volume
$13,016End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and ensemble models like GFS project a high temperature of 25-27°C in Mexico City on April 3, aligning with trader consensus pricing 26°C at 39.5% and 27°C at 27.5% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects the city's high elevation of 2,240 meters, which enforces an environmental lapse rate limiting daytime peaks despite abundant solar insolation in the early April dry season—climatological average highs hover at 26°C. Recent days, including April 2 observations near 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport (the market's resolution source), show stable patterns under a persistent high-pressure ridge, though a 66% chance of afternoon showers could cap heating. Model agreement is tight, with new hourly airport readings expected to sharpen resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$13,016End Date
Apr 3, 2026Market Opened
Mar 29, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from Mexico's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and ensemble models like GFS project a high temperature of 25-27°C in Mexico City on April 3, aligning with trader consensus pricing 26°C at 39.5% and 27°C at 27.5% implied probabilities. This positioning reflects the city's high elevation of 2,240 meters, which enforces an environmental lapse rate limiting daytime peaks despite abundant solar insolation in the early April dry season—climatological average highs hover at 26°C. Recent days, including April 2 observations near 26°C at Benito Juárez International Airport (the market's resolution source), show stable patterns under a persistent high-pressure ridge, though a 66% chance of afternoon showers could cap heating. Model agreement is tight, with new hourly airport readings expected to sharpen resolution by evening.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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