Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at Ankara Esenboğa International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm the highest temperature on April 15 reached exactly 20°C, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms for central Turkey, where daily maxima typically range 16–18°C amid variable spring weather patterns influenced by continental high-pressure systems and southerly flows. Pre-event forecasts from ensemble models had converged on 19–21°C peaks under partly sunny conditions with light winds. Realistic challenges are negligible post-measurement, though minor revisions could arise from final quality-controlled data releases, but historical precedents show such adjustments rarely exceed 0.5°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 15?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 15?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$166,215 Vol.
$166,215 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$166,215 Vol.
$166,215 Vol.
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) at Ankara Esenboğa International Airport—the market's resolution source—confirm the highest temperature on April 15 reached exactly 20°C, driving trader consensus to 100% implied probability for that outcome. This aligns with mid-April climatological norms for central Turkey, where daily maxima typically range 16–18°C amid variable spring weather patterns influenced by continental high-pressure systems and southerly flows. Pre-event forecasts from ensemble models had converged on 19–21°C peaks under partly sunny conditions with light winds. Realistic challenges are negligible post-measurement, though minor revisions could arise from final quality-controlled data releases, but historical precedents show such adjustments rarely exceed 0.5°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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