Trader consensus positions Portugal as the clear Group K favorite at 65.5% implied probability, driven by their top-five FIFA ranking, deep squad depth under Roberto Martínez, and dominant qualifying campaign topped by Nations League success. Colombia sits at 30%, reflecting robust CONMEBOL form, recent tune-up victories over Croatia and France, and attacking threats like Luis Díaz amid Nestor Lorenzo's tactical cohesion. DR Congo's extra-time playoff win over Jamaica via Axel Tuanzebe's 100th-minute strike three days ago—securing their first World Cup since 1974—completes the group but keeps their bundled odds with prior contenders at 3.4%, given limited experience. Uzbekistan lags at 0.7%, hampered by modest Asian qualifying and historical major-tournament shortcomings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedPortugal 66%
Colombia 30%
DRC/JAM/NCL 3.4%
Uzbekistan <1%
$23,236 Vol.
$23,236 Vol.
Portugal
66%
Colombia
30%
DRC/JAM/NCL
3%
Uzbekistan
1%
Portugal 66%
Colombia 30%
DRC/JAM/NCL 3.4%
Uzbekistan <1%
$23,236 Vol.
$23,236 Vol.
Portugal
66%
Colombia
30%
DRC/JAM/NCL
3%
Uzbekistan
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Portugal as the clear Group K favorite at 65.5% implied probability, driven by their top-five FIFA ranking, deep squad depth under Roberto Martínez, and dominant qualifying campaign topped by Nations League success. Colombia sits at 30%, reflecting robust CONMEBOL form, recent tune-up victories over Croatia and France, and attacking threats like Luis Díaz amid Nestor Lorenzo's tactical cohesion. DR Congo's extra-time playoff win over Jamaica via Axel Tuanzebe's 100th-minute strike three days ago—securing their first World Cup since 1974—completes the group but keeps their bundled odds with prior contenders at 3.4%, given limited experience. Uzbekistan lags at 0.7%, hampered by modest Asian qualifying and historical major-tournament shortcomings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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