Mercedes' overwhelming 79% implied probability in the F1 Constructors' Championship market reflects traders' confidence in their late-2024 car resurgence, reliable power units, and stable lineup of George Russell alongside rookie Kimi Antonelli for 2025's carryover regulations. Ferrari trails at 14% buoyed by Lewis Hamilton's blockbuster move to pair with Charles Leclerc, potentially unlocking podium consistency despite integration risks. McLaren's 3.1% share acknowledges Norris and Piastri's championship-winning momentum this year, while Red Bull slips to 2.1% amid Sergio Perez's abrupt dismissal and uncertainty over his replacement amid recent aero struggles. Minimal odds for others like Williams or newcomers underscore the top trio's dominance in pre-season simulations and historical engine edges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedMercedes 79%
Ferrari 14%
McLaren 3.1%
Red Bull Racing 2.1%
$5,951,213 Vol.
$5,951,213 Vol.

Mercedes
79%

Ferrari
14%

McLaren
3%

Red Bull Racing
2%

Williams
<1%

Audi
<1%

Cadillac
<1%

Racing Bulls
<1%

Haas
<1%

Alpine
<1%

Aston Martin
<1%
Mercedes 79%
Ferrari 14%
McLaren 3.1%
Red Bull Racing 2.1%
$5,951,213 Vol.
$5,951,213 Vol.

Mercedes
79%

Ferrari
14%

McLaren
3%

Red Bull Racing
2%

Williams
<1%

Audi
<1%

Cadillac
<1%

Racing Bulls
<1%

Haas
<1%

Alpine
<1%

Aston Martin
<1%
This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known.
In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.”
If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 7:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mercedes' overwhelming 79% implied probability in the F1 Constructors' Championship market reflects traders' confidence in their late-2024 car resurgence, reliable power units, and stable lineup of George Russell alongside rookie Kimi Antonelli for 2025's carryover regulations. Ferrari trails at 14% buoyed by Lewis Hamilton's blockbuster move to pair with Charles Leclerc, potentially unlocking podium consistency despite integration risks. McLaren's 3.1% share acknowledges Norris and Piastri's championship-winning momentum this year, while Red Bull slips to 2.1% amid Sergio Perez's abrupt dismissal and uncertainty over his replacement amid recent aero struggles. Minimal odds for others like Williams or newcomers underscore the top trio's dominance in pre-season simulations and historical engine edges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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