The formation of a new four-party coalition government under Prime Minister Dick Schoof in July 2024, following prolonged negotiations after the November 2023 elections, anchors trader consensus at 84% against dissolution of the Dutch House of Representatives (Tweede Kamer) in 2026. This right-wing alliance of PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB commands a parliamentary majority and has navigated early tests like budget approvals without major fractures or no-confidence motions. Absent acute crises such as policy gridlock on migration or nitrogen emissions—key coalition flashpoints—markets price in a full term likely extending to 2027 or 2028, reflecting historical patterns where Dutch coalitions rarely collapse prematurely. Recent polling stability and lack of snap election calls from party leaders further bolster the "No" odds.