Name: CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?
Start: 2024-12-17T22:27:25.442989Z
End: 2025-02-23T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the percentage of votes the CDU/CSU will receive in the next German election.

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins between 35% (inclusive) and 40% (inclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). 

35-40%

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins less than 20% of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). 

<20%

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins between 20% (inclusive) and 25% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). 

20-25%

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins over 40% of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). 

>40%

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins between 25% (inclusive) and 30% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). 

25-30%

German Federal elections to elect the 21st Bundestag are scheduled to take place February 23, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDU/CSU (CDU/CSU-Fraktion im Deutschen Bundestag) wins between 30% (inclusive) and 35% (exclusive) of all party list votes in the next German parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's resolution will be based solely on the proportion of votes won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part. For the purpose of this mark The CDU and CSU (often referred to as Union (Unionsparteien)) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results as reported by the German government, specifically the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) (https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/en/). 

30-35%

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.

A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.

If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.

If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg are scheduled to take place in Baden-Württemberg on March 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Baden-Württemberg (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Baden-Württemberg election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Baden-Württemberg Statistischen Landesamt  (https://www.statistik-bw.de/staat-und-gesellschaft/wahlen/landtagswahl).

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)


Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Rhineland-Palatinate are scheduled to take place in Rhineland-Palatinate on March 22, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landtag) as a result of this election.

If voting in the Rhineland-Palatinate election for the Landtag does not occur by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Rhineland-Palatinate (Landeswahlleiter Rheinland-Pfalz https://www.wahlen.rlp.de/landtagswahl/ergebnisse)

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?

his market will resolve to "Yes" if the political party Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) is banned at the federal level in Germany by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Partial bans at the state level or restrictions short of a full federal ban will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


AfD banned in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a formal application is filed at Germany’s Federal Constitutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) seeking to ban the political party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) or requesting that the Court assess the constitutionality of the political party as part of a process that could lead to the party’s ban under Article 21(2) of the German Basic Law by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The application must be officially lodged by one of the eligible entities: the Bundestag, the Bundesrat, or the Federal Government. 

This market does not require that the court accept or rule on the application—only that it is formally filed.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


German government files appeal to ban AfD in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rates over the same quarter of the previous year % change, based on seasonally adjusted data, in the first release of the "Gross domestic product: detailed economic performance results" press release for Q4 of 2025, expected to be released at the end of January 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html

If no data for the specified quarter is released by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: the resolution source for this market reports "on the same quarter a year earlier (price adjusted)" to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be exactly 0.1%?

The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025.

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election.

If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.

The following parties will be to be considered for this market: PVV, GroenLinks–PvdA, VVD, CDA, D66, JA21. All other parties (including but not limited to SP, BBB, NSC, DENK, PvdD, FvD, SGP, CU, and Volt) will not be considered. 

Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option (along with any other parties), that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition.

For example:

If the governing coalition includes GL–PvdA + VVD + CDA + JA21, but no option explicitly lists those four together, the market will resolve to “VVD + CDA + JA21”.

If the governing coalition includes PVV + VVD + CDA + D66, the option “PVV + VVD + CDA + D66” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PVV + VVD + CDA” will resolve to “No".

If the governing coalition does not match any listed option (e.g. the governing coalition is D66 + JA21) this market will resolve to “Other”. 

In the event that multiple market options each contain an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected House of Representatives. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed coalition which received the greater number of valid votes.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of the Netherlands.

Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Bundesliga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club is officially relegated by the Bundesliga following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will FC Heidenheim be relegated from the Bundesliga after the 2025–26 season?

This is a polymarket to predict which clubs finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings for the 2025–26 season.

If the listed club officially finishes in the top 4 of the Bundesliga standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

If two or more clubs are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Bundesliga tiebreaking procedures.

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings?

Elections for the autonomous community of Extremadura’s unicameral assembly are scheduled for December 21, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Assembly of Extremadura (Asamblea de Extremadura) as a result of this election.

If voting in the next election for the Assembly of Extremadura does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.

In the case of a tie between this party/coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party/coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If a listed coalition splits into individual parties prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Assembly of Extremadura at the time of the split.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).

Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2025 Extremadura regional election?

Six candidates of the German party AfD (Alternative for Germany) in North Rhine-Westphalia—four official contenders and two reserve list candidates—died between mid‑August and early September 2025, ahead of the September 14 local elections, prompting ballot reprints and political controversy.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming at least one of those deaths involved foul play is released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the German government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any German government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AFD deaths foul play confirmed in 2025?

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season.

If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Goals scored in Bundesliga matches only will count. Goals in other competitions (e.g., DFB-Pokal, German Super Cup, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market.

If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official statistics from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party is a part of the first Dutch government formed after the 2025 general election scheduled to take place October 29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister to the ruling government. Parties that merely provide external support (“gedoogsteun”) without holding ministerial positions will not qualify.

This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under "non-caretaker circumstances."

If no government is formed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if another election is called without a government being formed this market will resolve to "No". 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcements from the governing coalition; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will D66 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Cyprus on May 24, 2026.

This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Cyprus House of Representatives.

If voting in the Cyprus House of Representatives election does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats won, this market will be resolved in favor of the party which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the House of Representatives.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Service of the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Cyprus (https://elections.gov.cy).

Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives election?

The 2025 Central African Republic general election is scheduled to be held on December 28, 2025, to elect the 140 members of the National Assembly (CAR’s unicameral parliament).

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the most seats in the Central African Republic National Assembly as a result of the next Central African parliamentary election.

If initial voting in the next Central African parliamentary election does not occur by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market may remain open to consider any second-round votes held to determine winners in individual single-member constituencies, as long as the remaining undecided seats can still change which party wins the most seats overall, or maximally until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which the market will resolve based on the results available at that time.

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by this party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Government of the Central African Republic, specifically the National Elections Authority (https://www.ane-rca.org/).

Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank's deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between August 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET has passed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

ECB rate cut in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027.  This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. 

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

If no winner is announced by November 4, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ursula Von der Leyen ceases to be President of the European Commission for any length of time between May 14 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Von der Leyen departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the European Commission, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Von der Leyen out in 2025?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Scottish Parliament  in this election.

If voting in the Scottish parliamentary election does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the the Electoral Commission of Scotland (https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/).

Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election?

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on January 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the first-round turnout percentage, calculated as “Total votantes” divided by “Total inscritos”

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the election aren’t known by May 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.  

This market will resolve based on the result of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be at least 44%?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Wales on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) in this election.

If voting in the Welsh parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Welsh Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Welsh government, specifically the Senedd Commission of Wales  (https://senedd.wales/).

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on 18 or 25 January 2026, with a possible second round on 8 or 15 February 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Portuguese election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Colorado U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?

Second-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Chile on December 14, 2025.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the two candidates in the second round of the 2025 Chilean Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the 'margin of victory' is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of votes received by the first and second-place candidates. Percentages of the votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each of the two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in this round of the Chilean Presidential Election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Chilean Electoral Service (https://www.servel.cl/).

Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

<20%
$875,512 Vol.
No

20-25%
$487,627 Vol.
No

25-30%
$605,007 Vol.
Yes

30-35%
$639,209 Vol.
No

35-40%
$564,404 Vol.
No

>40%
$599,308 Vol.
No

Market Context

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

Rules

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

Market Context

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

About

Related

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

<20%$875,512 Vol.Nocircle xmark

20-25%$487,627 Vol.Nocircle xmark

25-30%$605,007 Vol.Yescircle check

30-35%$639,209 Vol.Nocircle xmark

35-40%$564,404 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>40%$599,308 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

Rules

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

Market Context

CDU/CSU % of vote in German Election?

About

Related

<20%
$875,512 Vol.
No

20-25%
$487,627 Vol.
No

25-30%
$605,007 Vol.
Yes

30-35%
$639,209 Vol.
No

35-40%
$564,404 Vol.
No

>40%
$599,308 Vol.
No