Trader consensus on the Valero Texas Open winner reflects a highly competitive, wide-open field at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course, with top probabilities tightly bunched around 25% for Zach Bauchou, Matt McCarty, Max McGreevy, J.T. Poston, Ricky Castillo, A.J. Ewart, David Lipsky, and Daniel Brown amid Round 1 completion. These mid-tier contenders and recent qualifiers posted solid opening rounds—Bauchou firing a 4-under 68 to tie for 11th—leveraging strong ballstriking and putting on the demanding, windy layout, while pre-tournament co-favorites like Ludvig Aberg (12%) trail farther back. With many stars resting ahead of the Masters and final invitations on the line for chasers like McCarty, the leaderboard volatility keeps upside potential even across this group heading into Round 2.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLudvig Aberg 11.2%
Robert MacIntyre 9.3%
Tommy Fleetwood 8.5%
Michael Kim 6.1%
$243,596 Vol.
$243,596 Vol.
Ludvig Aberg
11%
Robert MacIntyre
9%
Tommy Fleetwood
9%
Michael Kim
6%
Maverick McNealy
5%
J.J. Spaun
4%
Tony Finau
3%
Jordan L. Smith
3%
Ryo Hisatsune
2%
Alex Smalley
2%
Jordan Spieth
2%
Denny McCarthy
2%
Marco Penge
2%
Steven Fisk
2%
Andrew Putnam
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Eric Cole
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Si Woo Kim
1%
Austin Smotherman
1%
Keith Mitchell
1%
Max McGreevy
25%
Zach Bauchou
25%
Daniel Brown
1%
A.J. Ewart
1%
Thorbjorn Olesen
1%
JT Poston
25%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Henry Lebioda
1%
Andrew Novak
1%
Russell Henley
1%
Beau Hossler
1%
Austin Eckroat
1%
Hao-Tong Li
1%
Alexander Noren
1%
John Parry
1%
Max Homa
1%
Nick Dunlap
1%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
David Ford
1%
Christo Lamprecht
1%
Rico Hoey
1%
Billy Horschel
1%
Brian Harman
1%
Chris Kirk
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Kevin Roy
1%
Adam Schenk
1%
Stephan Jaeger
1%
Doug Ghim
1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Patrick Fishburn
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
Mackenzie Hughes
<1%
Johnny Keefer
<1%
Mac Meissner
<1%
Peter Malnati
<1%
Chandler Blanchet
<1%
Chad Ramey
<1%
Adrien Saddier
<1%
Gordon Sargent
<1%
Brandt Snedeker
<1%
Ze-Cheng Dou
<1%
Emiliano Grillo
<1%
Garrick Higgo
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Charley Hoffman
<1%
Tom Hoge
<1%
Jeffrey Kang
<1%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Patton Kizzire
<1%
Joe Highsmith
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Pontus Nyholm
<1%
Matthieu Pavon
<1%
Seamus Power
<1%
Ricky Castillo
<1%
David Lipsky
<1%
Rafael Campos
<1%
Marcelo Rozo
<1%
Webb Simpson
<1%
Lucas Glover
<1%
Luke Clanton
<1%
Matt McCarty
25%
Chandler Phillips
<1%
Davis Chatfield
<1%
Brice Garnett
<1%
Mark Hubbard
<1%
Neal Shipley
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Matthias Schmid
<1%
Pierceson Coody
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
<1%
Ludvig Aberg 11.2%
Robert MacIntyre 9.3%
Tommy Fleetwood 8.5%
Michael Kim 6.1%
$243,596 Vol.
$243,596 Vol.
Ludvig Aberg
11%
Robert MacIntyre
9%
Tommy Fleetwood
9%
Michael Kim
6%
Maverick McNealy
5%
J.J. Spaun
4%
Tony Finau
3%
Jordan L. Smith
3%
Ryo Hisatsune
2%
Alex Smalley
2%
Jordan Spieth
2%
Denny McCarthy
2%
Marco Penge
2%
Steven Fisk
2%
Andrew Putnam
2%
Hideki Matsuyama
2%
Eric Cole
2%
Nicolai Hojgaard
2%
Si Woo Kim
1%
Austin Smotherman
1%
Keith Mitchell
1%
Max McGreevy
25%
Zach Bauchou
25%
Daniel Brown
1%
A.J. Ewart
1%
Thorbjorn Olesen
1%
JT Poston
25%
Rickie Fowler
1%
Henry Lebioda
1%
Andrew Novak
1%
Russell Henley
1%
Beau Hossler
1%
Austin Eckroat
1%
Hao-Tong Li
1%
Alexander Noren
1%
John Parry
1%
Max Homa
1%
Nick Dunlap
1%
Adrien Dumont De Chassart
1%
Bud Cauley
1%
David Ford
1%
Christo Lamprecht
1%
Rico Hoey
1%
Billy Horschel
1%
Brian Harman
1%
Chris Kirk
1%
Kristoffer Reitan
1%
Kevin Roy
1%
Adam Schenk
1%
Stephan Jaeger
1%
Doug Ghim
1%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
<1%
Tom Kim
<1%
Patrick Fishburn
<1%
Takumi Kanaya
<1%
Mackenzie Hughes
<1%
Johnny Keefer
<1%
Mac Meissner
<1%
Peter Malnati
<1%
Chandler Blanchet
<1%
Chad Ramey
<1%
Adrien Saddier
<1%
Gordon Sargent
<1%
Brandt Snedeker
<1%
Ze-Cheng Dou
<1%
Emiliano Grillo
<1%
Garrick Higgo
<1%
Lee Hodges
<1%
Charley Hoffman
<1%
Tom Hoge
<1%
Jeffrey Kang
<1%
Seong-Hyeon Kim
<1%
Patton Kizzire
<1%
Joe Highsmith
<1%
Kensei Hirata
<1%
William Mouw
<1%
Pontus Nyholm
<1%
Matthieu Pavon
<1%
Seamus Power
<1%
Ricky Castillo
<1%
David Lipsky
<1%
Rafael Campos
<1%
Marcelo Rozo
<1%
Webb Simpson
<1%
Lucas Glover
<1%
Luke Clanton
<1%
Matt McCarty
25%
Chandler Phillips
<1%
Davis Chatfield
<1%
Brice Garnett
<1%
Mark Hubbard
<1%
Neal Shipley
<1%
Daniel Berger
<1%
Patrick Rodgers
<1%
Isaiah Salinda
<1%
Matthias Schmid
<1%
Pierceson Coody
<1%
Collin Morikawa
<1%
Ryan Gerard
<1%
Kyoung-Hoon Lee
<1%
If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Valero Texas Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the Valero Texas Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by April 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 12:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Valero Texas Open tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No".
If an unlisted player wins the Valero Texas Open tournament this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If no winner is announced by April 11, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).
Resolution Source
https://www.pgatour.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Valero Texas Open winner reflects a highly competitive, wide-open field at TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course, with top probabilities tightly bunched around 25% for Zach Bauchou, Matt McCarty, Max McGreevy, J.T. Poston, Ricky Castillo, A.J. Ewart, David Lipsky, and Daniel Brown amid Round 1 completion. These mid-tier contenders and recent qualifiers posted solid opening rounds—Bauchou firing a 4-under 68 to tie for 11th—leveraging strong ballstriking and putting on the demanding, windy layout, while pre-tournament co-favorites like Ludvig Aberg (12%) trail farther back. With many stars resting ahead of the Masters and final invitations on the line for chasers like McCarty, the leaderboard volatility keeps upside potential even across this group heading into Round 2.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions