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Sports·ATP

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Market icon
Sports·ATP

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Carlos Alcaraz 38%

Jannik Sinner 35%

Jiri Lehecka 6.0%

Novak Djokovic 3.5%

Polymarket

$1,019,360 Vol.

Carlos Alcaraz 38%

Jannik Sinner 35%

Jiri Lehecka 6.0%

Novak Djokovic 3.5%

Polymarket

$1,019,360 Vol.

Carlos Alcaraz

$3,176 Vol.

38%

Jannik Sinner

$3,593 Vol.

35%

Jiri Lehecka

$272,282 Vol.

6%

Novak Djokovic

$122,826 Vol.

3%

Arthur Fils

$11,310 Vol.

3%

Alexander Zverev

$12,515 Vol.

3%

Daniil Medvedev

$8,444 Vol.

3%

Lorenzo Musetti

$1,313 Vol.

3%

Joao Fonseca

$25,172 Vol.

2%

Jakub Mensik

$63,161 Vol.

2%

Jack Draper

$33,656 Vol.

1%

Ben Shelton

$38,307 Vol.

1%

Alexander Bublik

$20,573 Vol.

1%

Taylor Fritz

$8,968 Vol.

1%

Felix Auger Aliassime

$246,278 Vol.

1%

Hubert Hurkacz

$140,846 Vol.

1%

Grigor Dimitrov

$845 Vol.

1%

Holger Rune

$787 Vol.

<1%

Andrey Rublev

$1,043 Vol.

<1%

Frances Tiafoe

$854 Vol.

<1%

Matteo Berrettini

$1,107 Vol.

<1%

Flavio Cobolli

$2,303 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz holds a narrow edge at 38% implied probability over Jannik Sinner's 35% in trader consensus for the 2026 US Open men's winner, reflecting their shared dominance as the top-ranked players and hard-court prowess on the Flushing Meadows surface. Alcaraz's Australian Open 2026 title—defeating Djokovic in the final to complete his career Grand Slam at age 22—solidifies his status, despite a disappointing Sunshine Double with semifinal loss at Indian Wells and early Miami exit. Sinner's historic Sunshine Double sweep, winning Indian Wells over Medvedev and Miami over Lehecka without dropping a set, has narrowed the gap, highlighting his peaking form. Lehecka's 6% stems from his breakthrough Miami final, while Djokovic's 3.5% fades amid injury withdrawals from Miami and Monte Carlo. The race stays tight due to both favorites' youth, head-to-head parity, and unproven clay-season disruptions before summer hard courts.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,019,360
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz holds a narrow edge at 38% implied probability over Jannik Sinner's 35% in trader consensus for the 2026 US Open men's winner, reflecting their shared dominance as the top-ranked players and hard-court prowess on the Flushing Meadows surface. Alcaraz's Australian Open 2026 title—defeating Djokovic in the final to complete his career Grand Slam at age 22—solidifies his status, despite a disappointing Sunshine Double with semifinal loss at Indian Wells and early Miami exit. Sinner's historic Sunshine Double sweep, winning Indian Wells over Medvedev and Miami over Lehecka without dropping a set, has narrowed the gap, highlighting his peaking form. Lehecka's 6% stems from his breakthrough Miami final, while Djokovic's 3.5% fades amid injury withdrawals from Miami and Monte Carlo. The race stays tight due to both favorites' youth, head-to-head parity, and unproven clay-season disruptions before summer hard courts.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament.

If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.

If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,019,360
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Carlos Alcaraz" at 38%, followed by "Jannik Sinner" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" has generated $1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" is "Carlos Alcaraz" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Jannik Sinner" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.