Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, propelled by retaining the FIFA No. 1 ranking as of March 28 and topping their UEFA qualifying group with five wins from six, building on Euro 2024 dominance featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri's attacking flair. France (12.6%) and England (12.4%) remain tightly bunched behind, showcasing squad depth—France's 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26 highlighted Kylian Mbappé's form—while England's perfect qualifying record underscores resilience under Thomas Tuchel. The competitive dynamics stem from elite talent parity, challenging group draws like Spain vs. Uruguay and France vs. Senegal, and injury setbacks such as Brazil's Rodrygo ruled out, keeping the race fluid with 100 days until kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 16.4%
France 12.6%
England 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$452,676,457 Vol.
$452,676,457 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
13%
England
12%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Japan
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 16.4%
France 12.6%
England 12.3%
Argentina 9.4%
$452,676,457 Vol.
$452,676,457 Vol.
Spain
16%
France
13%
England
12%
Argentina
9%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
Japan
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
Panama
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, propelled by retaining the FIFA No. 1 ranking as of March 28 and topping their UEFA qualifying group with five wins from six, building on Euro 2024 dominance featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri's attacking flair. France (12.6%) and England (12.4%) remain tightly bunched behind, showcasing squad depth—France's 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26 highlighted Kylian Mbappé's form—while England's perfect qualifying record underscores resilience under Thomas Tuchel. The competitive dynamics stem from elite talent parity, challenging group draws like Spain vs. Uruguay and France vs. Senegal, and injury setbacks such as Brazil's Rodrygo ruled out, keeping the race fluid with 100 days until kickoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions