Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their favorable Group H draw alongside Uruguay, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia, plus the sustained momentum from their Euro 2024 victory and a golden generation peaking with stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. England (12.7%) and France (11.8%) follow closely, reflecting strong Nations League form and deep squads headlined by Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé, while defending champions Argentina (9.6%) hold firm despite Lionel Messi's age (39). Brazil (8.6%) lags amid coaching transitions and uneven CONMEBOL qualifiers. The bunched top tier underscores no clear favorite in an expanded 48-team field, with recent European and intercontinental playoffs (March 26-31) confirming a parity of powerhouses via balanced group stages and knockout potential, where upsets thrive amid travel demands across North American venues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.7%
England 12.7%
France 11.8%
Argentina 9.6%
$432,053,450 Vol.
$432,053,450 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
12%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.7%
England 12.7%
France 11.8%
Argentina 9.6%
$432,053,450 Vol.
$432,053,450 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
12%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
3%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatia
1%
Mexico
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, buoyed by their favorable Group H draw alongside Uruguay, Cape Verde, and Saudi Arabia, plus the sustained momentum from their Euro 2024 victory and a golden generation peaking with stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. England (12.7%) and France (11.8%) follow closely, reflecting strong Nations League form and deep squads headlined by Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappé, while defending champions Argentina (9.6%) hold firm despite Lionel Messi's age (39). Brazil (8.6%) lags amid coaching transitions and uneven CONMEBOL qualifiers. The bunched top tier underscores no clear favorite in an expanded 48-team field, with recent European and intercontinental playoffs (March 26-31) confirming a parity of powerhouses via balanced group stages and knockout potential, where upsets thrive amid travel demands across North American venues.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions