Spain's commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week has solidified trader consensus as the narrow favorite, building on their unbeaten European qualifiers and Euro 2024 triumph fueled by Lamine Yamal's breakout form. France stays close after back-to-back victories versus Brazil (2-1) and Colombia (3-1), highlighting Kylian Mbappé's scoring prowess despite a recent knee sprain and Didier Deschamps' post-tournament exit. England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay exposes finishing issues despite a perfect qualifying record, while Argentina edged Mauritania 2-1 and Brazil fell to France amid defensive woes. The expanded 48-team format, advancing top thirds plus runners-up to the round of 32, tough draws like Spain's group with Uruguay, and looming club-season injuries keep probabilities bunched among Europe's depth and South America's pedigree.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.7%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$428,346,703 Vol.
$428,346,703 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Spain 15.7%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$428,346,703 Vol.
$428,346,703 Vol.
Spain
16%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's commanding 3-0 friendly win over Serbia last week has solidified trader consensus as the narrow favorite, building on their unbeaten European qualifiers and Euro 2024 triumph fueled by Lamine Yamal's breakout form. France stays close after back-to-back victories versus Brazil (2-1) and Colombia (3-1), highlighting Kylian Mbappé's scoring prowess despite a recent knee sprain and Didier Deschamps' post-tournament exit. England's 1-1 draw with Uruguay exposes finishing issues despite a perfect qualifying record, while Argentina edged Mauritania 2-1 and Brazil fell to France amid defensive woes. The expanded 48-team format, advancing top thirds plus runners-up to the round of 32, tough draws like Spain's group with Uruguay, and looming club-season injuries keep probabilities bunched among Europe's depth and South America's pedigree.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions