Spain tops trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.4% implied probability, retaining FIFA's No. 1 ranking after strong March internationals, fueled by Euro 2024 success, Rodri's midfield mastery, Pedri's vision, and Lamine Yamal's breakout flair. The race stays tightly contested—England (12.8%) leverages depth from Kane and Bellingham, France (11.1%) eyes Mbappé's speed, Argentina (9.8%) grapples with Messi's uncertain availability at age 39 amid recent coach comments, and Brazil (8.6%) stabilizes post-qualifying struggles. With 42 teams qualified and UEFA/intercontinental playoffs concluding March 31, the expanded 48-team format's group stage paths and final prep now dominate sentiment, underscoring broad upset potential across potent squads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedSpain 15.4%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$428,915,883 Vol.
$428,915,883 Vol.
Spain
15%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Spain 15.4%
England 12.8%
France 11.1%
Argentina 9.8%
$428,915,883 Vol.
$428,915,883 Vol.
Spain
15%
England
13%
France
11%
Argentina
10%
Brazil
9%
Portugal
7%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
3%
Italy
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Japan
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Switzerland
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Canada
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Australia
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Iran
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain tops trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.4% implied probability, retaining FIFA's No. 1 ranking after strong March internationals, fueled by Euro 2024 success, Rodri's midfield mastery, Pedri's vision, and Lamine Yamal's breakout flair. The race stays tightly contested—England (12.8%) leverages depth from Kane and Bellingham, France (11.1%) eyes Mbappé's speed, Argentina (9.8%) grapples with Messi's uncertain availability at age 39 amid recent coach comments, and Brazil (8.6%) stabilizes post-qualifying struggles. With 42 teams qualified and UEFA/intercontinental playoffs concluding March 31, the expanded 48-team format's group stage paths and final prep now dominate sentiment, underscoring broad upset potential across potent squads.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions