Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

Market icon
Sports·Soccer

2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?

$1,443,360 Vol.

Apr 12, 2026
Polymarket

$1,443,360 Vol.

Polymarket

Italy

$311,509 Vol.

75%

DR Congo

$4,032 Vol.

65%

Turkey

$93,212 Vol.

67%

Sweden

$139,855 Vol.

63%

Iraq

$2,749 Vol.

51%

Denmark

$33,927 Vol.

61%

Bolivia

$4,818 Vol.

66%

Czechia

$23,973 Vol.

41%

Jamaica

$1,479 Vol.

40%

Poland

$486,070 Vol.

38%

Kosovo

$7,099 Vol.

36%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

$4,116 Vol.

26%

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).Hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico hold automatic berths for the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, while 13 teams have now qualified through confederation paths: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay from CONMEBOL; Iran, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Iraq, and Uzbekistan from AFC. Paraguay, South Korea, and Iraq punched their tickets in key matches on November 19, boosting trader consensus on South American and Asian slots amid grueling final-round standings battles. UEFA qualifiers kick off March 2025 after the December 13 draw, with 16 direct spots and playoffs ahead; CAF's nine direct qualifiers plus one playoff spot remain undecided until 2025 final stages, alongside CONCACAF's ongoing final round and OFC's likely New Zealand lock. Markets reflect these certainties versus open races in Europe and Africa.

This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).
Volume
$1,443,360
End Date
Apr 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2025, 8:20 AM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This is a market on which teams will qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to qualify for the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g. they cannot reach the required number of points to advance from its group or qualify for playoffs), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or the qualifying stage has not been completed by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be FIFA. (https://www.fifa.com/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup).Hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico hold automatic berths for the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, while 13 teams have now qualified through confederation paths: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay from CONMEBOL; Iran, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Iraq, and Uzbekistan from AFC. Paraguay, South Korea, and Iraq punched their tickets in key matches on November 19, boosting trader consensus on South American and Asian slots amid grueling final-round standings battles. UEFA qualifiers kick off March 2025 after the December 13 draw, with 16 direct spots and playoffs ahead; CAF's nine direct qualifiers plus one playoff spot remain undecided until 2025 final stages, alongside CONCACAF's ongoing final round and OFC's likely New Zealand lock. Markets reflect these certainties versus open races in Europe and Africa.

Hosts USA, Canada, and Mexico hold automatic berths for the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, while 13 teams have now qualified through confederation paths: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay from CONMEBOL; Iran, Japan, Jordan, South Korea, Iraq, and Uzbekistan from AFC. Paraguay, South Korea, and Iraq punched their tickets in key matches on November 19, boosting trader consensus on South American and Asian slots amid grueling final-round standings battles. UEFA qualifiers kick off March 2025 after the December 13 draw, with 16 direct spots and playoffs ahead; CAF's nine direct qualifiers plus one playoff spot remain undecided until 2025 final stages, alongside CONCACAF's ongoing final round and OFC's likely New Zealand lock. Markets reflect these certainties versus open races in Europe and Africa.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualification Longshots Parlay

56%
Market icon

Will Europe win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

70%
Market icon

Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

42%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 33 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Netherlands" at 100%, followed by "Belgium" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" has generated $1.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?," browse the 33 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" is "Netherlands" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Belgium" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026 FIFA World Cup: Which countries qualify?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.