Arsenal leads trader consensus for the 2025-2026 FA Cup winner at 34.5% implied probability, driven by their elite squad depth, Mikel Arteta's tactical edge in knockout formats, and strong current Premier League form positioning them as title contenders. Manchester City follows at 25.5%, bolstered by Pep Guardiola's historical cup dominance despite recent league stumbles, while Chelsea's 17.5% reflects Enzo Maresca's revitalized attack and young talent pool. Liverpool's 13% lags slightly amid transition under Arne Slot, though their firepower remains potent. Lower-tier bids on promotion-chasing Leeds (5.9%) and West Ham (6.1%) factor in potential upsets and home-draw advantages, with Championship momentum and squad reinforcements key amid early-season projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedArsenal 35%
Manchester City 26%
Chelsea 18%
Liverpool 13%
$334,009 Vol.
$334,009 Vol.
Arsenal
35%
Manchester City
26%
Chelsea
18%
Liverpool
13%
West Ham United
6%
Leeds United AFC
6%
Southampton
3%
Port Vale
1%
Arsenal 35%
Manchester City 26%
Chelsea 18%
Liverpool 13%
$334,009 Vol.
$334,009 Vol.
Arsenal
35%
Manchester City
26%
Chelsea
18%
Liverpool
13%
West Ham United
6%
Leeds United AFC
6%
Southampton
3%
Port Vale
1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arsenal leads trader consensus for the 2025-2026 FA Cup winner at 34.5% implied probability, driven by their elite squad depth, Mikel Arteta's tactical edge in knockout formats, and strong current Premier League form positioning them as title contenders. Manchester City follows at 25.5%, bolstered by Pep Guardiola's historical cup dominance despite recent league stumbles, while Chelsea's 17.5% reflects Enzo Maresca's revitalized attack and young talent pool. Liverpool's 13% lags slightly amid transition under Arne Slot, though their firepower remains potent. Lower-tier bids on promotion-chasing Leeds (5.9%) and West Ham (6.1%) factor in potential upsets and home-draw advantages, with Championship momentum and squad reinforcements key amid early-season projections.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions