Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon
Política·Oriente Medio

¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?

Market icon
Política·Oriente Medio

¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

Ended: Dec 31, 2025

Mar 31

$9,121,450 Vol.

Dec 21, 2025
Polymarket

$9,121,450 Vol.

Polymarket

29 de octubre

$24,426 Vol.

No

30 de octubre

$66,799 Vol.

Sí

31 de octubre

$57,545 Vol.

Sí

1 de noviembre

$228,007 Vol.

Sí

2 de noviembre

$152,234 Vol.

Sí

3 de noviembre

$83,226 Vol.

Sí

4 de noviembre

$728,964 Vol.

No

5 de noviembre

$189,996 Vol.

Sí

6 de noviembre

$163,961 Vol.

Sí

7 de noviembre

$69,807 Vol.

No

8 de noviembre

$133,642 Vol.

Sí

9 de noviembre

$254,973 Vol.

Sí

10 de noviembre

$168,198 Vol.

Sí

11 de noviembre

$105,391 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 12 de noviembre

$41,620 Vol.

No

13 de noviembre

$128,822 Vol.

Sí

14 de noviembre

$40,611 Vol.

No

15 de noviembre

$25,567 Vol.

No

16 de noviembre

$98,133 Vol.

Sí

17 de noviembre

$80,522 Vol.

No

18 de noviembre

$85,260 Vol.

Sí

19 de noviembre

$96,908 Vol.

Sí

20 de noviembre

$49,142 Vol.

No

21 de noviembre

$72,916 Vol.

Sí

22 de noviembre

$88,793 Vol.

Sí

23 de noviembre

$53,984 Vol.

Sí

24 de noviembre

$41,324 Vol.

No

25 de noviembre

$16,646 Vol.

No

26 de noviembre

$36,978 Vol.

No

27 de noviembre

$18,887 Vol.

Sí

28 de noviembre

$45,758 Vol.

No

29 de noviembre

$30,122 Vol.

No

30 de noviembre

$20,350 Vol.

No

1 de diciembre

$16,399 Vol.

No

2 de diciembre

$28,740 Vol.

No

3 de diciembre

$22,529 Vol.

No

4 de diciembre

$129,893 Vol.

Sí

5 de diciembre

$61,486 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 6 de diciembre

$32,733 Vol.

No

7 de diciembre

$43,531 Vol.

No

8 de diciembre

$4,021,935 Vol.

Sí

9 de diciembre

$118,320 Vol.

No

10 de diciembre

$30,550 Vol.

No

11 de diciembre

$16,645 Vol.

No

12 de diciembre

$23,012 Vol.

Sí

13 de diciembre

$84,378 Vol.

No

14 de diciembre

$101,053 Vol.

Sí

15 de diciembre

$21,960 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 16 de diciembre

$55,553 Vol.

Sí

17 de diciembre

$59,674 Vol.

No

18 de diciembre

$34,253 Vol.

Sí

19 de diciembre

$28,701 Vol.

No

Título del ítem del grupo: 20 de diciembre

$126,380 Vol.

No

21 de diciembre

$122,833 Vol.

Sí

22 de diciembre

$122,462 Vol.

Sí

23 de diciembre

$53,755 Vol.

No

24 de diciembre

$73,248 Vol.

Sí

25 de diciembre

$29,586 Vol.

Sí

26 de diciembre

$17,189 Vol.

Sí

27 de diciembre

$39,594 Vol.

No

28 de diciembre

$19,989 Vol.

No

29 de diciembre

$28,354 Vol.

No

30 de diciembre

$28,941 Vol.

No

31 de diciembre

$28,263 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$9,121,450
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2025
Mercado abierto
Dec 19, 2025, 7:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Resultado propuesto: No

Sin disputa

Resultado final: No

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 64+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de octubre" at 100%, followed by "31 de octubre" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?" has generated $9.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?," browse the 64+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?" is "30 de octubre" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de octubre" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Israel atacará Líbano el...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.