Market icon
Mundo·Irán

¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?

Market icon
Mundo·Irán

¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?

Mojtaba Khamenei 51.4%

Alireza Arafi 14.6%

Ninguno para el 30 de junio 6.8%

Cargo abolido 6.5%

Polymarket

$22,515,869 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 51.4%

Alireza Arafi 14.6%

Ninguno para el 30 de junio 6.8%

Cargo abolido 6.5%

Polymarket

$22,515,869 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$5,877,661 Vol.

51%

Alireza Arafi

$1,921,153 Vol.

15%

Ninguno para el 30 de junio

$835,420 Vol.

7%

Cargo abolido

$1,241,360 Vol.

6%

Hassan Khomeini

$723,740 Vol.

5%

Sadegh Larijani

$582,911 Vol.

3%

Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i

$602,181 Vol.

3%

Hassan Rouhani

$656,946 Vol.

3%

Ali Larijani

$851,011 Vol.

2%

Reza Pahlavi

$788,664 Vol.

2%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$538,821 Vol.

1%

Mohsen Araki

$445,114 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$354,471 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Khatami

$277,854 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$463,650 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Reza Modarresi Yazdi

$370,466 Vol.

<1%

Hashem Hosseini Bushehri

$496,993 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$250,634 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$212,664 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$223,909 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Qomi

$338,673 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$140,880 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$204,659 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$245,235 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$194,395 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$343,778 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Hadi Ghazanfari Khansari

$258,611 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$169,579 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$249,264 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$220,721 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$183,900 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$220,918 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$226,326 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$194,039 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$428,760 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$321,369 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Yasrebi

$142,857 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$228,464 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$341,651 Vol.

<1%

Khalil Mobasher Kashani

$146,168 Vol.

<1%

The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts.

This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei.

Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”.

If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”.

Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$22,515,869
Fecha de finalización
Dec 31, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 28, 2026, 4:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Supreme Leader of Iran is chosen by the Assembly of Experts. This market will resolve according to the person who is named as the next Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The resolution of this market will be based on the first official announcement of the next Supreme Leader of Iran after Ali Khamenei. Any interim, acting, or temporary leader will not count toward the resolution of this market. If Ali Khamenei remains the Supreme Leader of Iran or the next Supreme Leader of Iran is not officially announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None by June 30”. If the position of Supreme Leader is formally abolished — including instances in which the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to exist, is replaced, or no longer maintains the office of Supreme Leader — this market will resolve to “Position abolished”. Only individuals formally appointed to the office titled “Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran” (or a clearly direct constitutional equivalent replacing that title) will qualify. Individuals serving solely as President, head of state, head of government, or in any other role that is not explicitly the Supreme Leader or a direct constitutional equivalent will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Iran. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 40+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 51%, followed by "Alireza Arafi" at 15%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?" has generated $22.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?," browse the 40+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alireza Arafi" at 15%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "¿Próximo líder supremo de Irán?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.