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Geopolítica·Israel X Irán

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Israel X Irán

Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

$66,577 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$66,577 Vol.

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia

$30,883 Vol.

29%

UAE

$12,383 Vol.

22%

UK

$12,458 Vol.

9%

Kuwait

$442 Vol.

7%

France

$2,991 Vol.

6%

Jordan

$832 Vol.

6%

Qatar

$0 Vol.

6%

Bahrain

$313 Vol.

6%

Any E.U. Country

$2,391 Vol.

6%

Turkey

$224 Vol.

5%

Germany

$1,392 Vol.

4%

Oman

$0 Vol.

4%

Canada

$2,270 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on April 19 near Isfahan, Iran—targeting radar and air defense sites—marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, in calibrated response to Tehran's unprecedented April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel. This exchange, following Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Syria, prompted defensive interceptions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan, but no offensive involvement from those nations. Official statements from both sides and US diplomatic pressure have since emphasized de-escalation, diminishing prospects for further strikes by April 30 amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor for any retaliatory signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter trajectories before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$66,577
Fecha de finalización
Apr 30, 2026
Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israel's limited airstrikes on April 19 near Isfahan, Iran—targeting radar and air defense sites—marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, in calibrated response to Tehran's unprecedented April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel. This exchange, following Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Syria, prompted defensive interceptions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan, but no offensive involvement from those nations. Official statements from both sides and US diplomatic pressure have since emphasized de-escalation, diminishing prospects for further strikes by April 30 amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor for any retaliatory signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter trajectories before resolution.

Israel's limited airstrikes on April 19 near Isfahan, Iran—targeting radar and air defense sites—marked the most recent direct military action against Iran, in calibrated response to Tehran's unprecedented April 13 drone and missile barrage on Israel. This exchange, following Israel's April 1 strike on Iran's consulate in Syria, prompted defensive interceptions by the US, UK, France, and Jordan, but no offensive involvement from those nations. Official statements from both sides and US diplomatic pressure have since emphasized de-escalation, diminishing prospects for further strikes by April 30 amid ongoing proxy conflicts with Hezbollah and Houthis. Traders monitor for any retaliatory signals or diplomatic breakthroughs that could alter trajectories before resolution.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 13 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Saudi Arabia" con 28%, seguido de "UAE" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 28¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 28% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" ha generado $66.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 23, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?", explora los 13 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" es "Saudi Arabia" con 28%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 28% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "UAE" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.