US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, air defenses, missile sites, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—on February 28, 2026, with combined operations continuing to target defense industrial bases through late March. A US precision strike hit Isfahan, a key air base and nuclear site, on March 31, generating massive fireballs amid ongoing degradation of Iran's capabilities. GCC states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait), UK, France, and Germany have conducted defensive intercepts of over 400 Iranian ballistic missiles and thousands of drones launched at Israel and US regional bases. Iran's proxy responses via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, but emerging US-Iran ceasefire talks and President Trump's de-escalation rhetoric signal potential wind-down, influencing trader assessments of further offensive actions by April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoWhich countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
$586,582 Vol.
30 abr 2026
UAE
15%
Saudi Arabia
13%
Qatar
5%
Jordan
5%
Kuwait
5%
Turkey
4%
Any E.U. Country
4%
Oman
4%
UK
4%
Bahrain
4%
France
3%
Germany
1%
Canada
1%
$586,582 Vol.
UAE
$110,420 Vol.
15%
Saudi Arabia
$102,234 Vol.
13%
Qatar
$765 Vol.
5%
Jordan
$1,098 Vol.
5%
Kuwait
$1,725 Vol.
5%
Turkey
$16,674 Vol.
4%
Any E.U. Country
$8,772 Vol.
4%
Oman
$412 Vol.
4%
UK
$108,065 Vol.
4%
Bahrain
$2,407 Vol.
4%
France
$150,347 Vol.
3%
Germany
$81,468 Vol.
1%
Canada
$2,271 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, air defenses, missile sites, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—on February 28, 2026, with combined operations continuing to target defense industrial bases through late March. A US precision strike hit Isfahan, a key air base and nuclear site, on March 31, generating massive fireballs amid ongoing degradation of Iran's capabilities. GCC states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait), UK, France, and Germany have conducted defensive intercepts of over 400 Iranian ballistic missiles and thousands of drones launched at Israel and US regional bases. Iran's proxy responses via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, but emerging US-Iran ceasefire talks and President Trump's de-escalation rhetoric signal potential wind-down, influencing trader assessments of further offensive actions by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
Volumen
$586,582Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, air defenses, missile sites, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—on February 28, 2026, with combined operations continuing to target defense industrial bases through late March. A US precision strike hit Isfahan, a key air base and nuclear site, on March 31, generating massive fireballs amid ongoing degradation of Iran's capabilities. GCC states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait), UK, France, and Germany have conducted defensive intercepts of over 400 Iranian ballistic missiles and thousands of drones launched at Israel and US regional bases. Iran's proxy responses via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, but emerging US-Iran ceasefire talks and President Trump's de-escalation rhetoric signal potential wind-down, influencing trader assessments of further offensive actions by April 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$586,582Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, air defenses, missile sites, and leadership—including Supreme Leader Khamenei—on February 28, 2026, with combined operations continuing to target defense industrial bases through late March. A US precision strike hit Isfahan, a key air base and nuclear site, on March 31, generating massive fireballs amid ongoing degradation of Iran's capabilities. GCC states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait), UK, France, and Germany have conducted defensive intercepts of over 400 Iranian ballistic missiles and thousands of drones launched at Israel and US regional bases. Iran's proxy responses via Houthis and Hezbollah persist, but emerging US-Iran ceasefire talks and President Trump's de-escalation rhetoric signal potential wind-down, influencing trader assessments of further offensive actions by April 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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