Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAnthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Baidu <1%
$16,222,838 Vol.
$16,222,838 Vol.
31 mar 2026
No
OpenAI
No
Baidu
No
xAI
No
Moonshot
No
Meituan
No
Anthropic
Sí
Alibaba
No
Z.ai
No
DeepSeek
No
Mistral
No
Anthropic 100.0%
Google <1%
OpenAI <1%
Baidu <1%
$16,222,838 Vol.
$16,222,838 Vol.
31 mar 2026
$1,196,016 Vol.
No
OpenAI
$1,653,187 Vol.
No
Baidu
$3,141,144 Vol.
No
xAI
$1,261,862 Vol.
No
Moonshot
$1,424,813 Vol.
No
Meituan
$1,201,321 Vol.
No
Anthropic
$1,753,531 Vol.
Sí
Alibaba
$1,225,712 Vol.
No
Z.ai
$1,263,181 Vol.
No
DeepSeek
$1,481,355 Vol.
No
Mistral
$620,715 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volumen
$16,222,838Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$16,222,838Fecha de finalización
31 mar 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the best AI model by end of March 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's dominant position atop the LMArena Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control off), where it holds the highest Arena Score as of the March 31 snapshot. This reflects Anthropic's aggressive 2026 roadmap, including the February Claude Opus 4.6 release excelling in reasoning benchmarks like GPQA (91.9%) and MMLU-Pro (82%), plus March enhancements such as 1M-token context windows, agentic workflows via Claude Cowork, and surging enterprise adoption per their Economic Index report. While real capital backs this skin-in-the-game verdict, late-breaking competitor launches from Google (Gemini 3.1 Pro) or OpenAI (GPT-5.4), leaderboard volatility, or a tie could theoretically challenge it before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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