US special forces conducted a limited raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro amid airstrikes and helicopter insertions, marking the prior US military entry that defines this market. No subsequent ground entries have occurred, with Defense Department statements confirming no ongoing troops in Venezuela despite a sustained Navy blockade and 15,000-20,000 personnel amassed regionally. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals, including Maduro's ouster and Venezuela's nascent political transition reported in March, tempered by congressional debates over military authorizations and international rebukes of the operation as unlawful. Absent new escalation triggers like territorial disputes or failed diplomacy, probabilities remain low ahead of June deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$1,257,352 Vol.
31 ene 2026
31 de marzo
1%
30 de junio
13%
$1,257,352 Vol.
31 de marzo
$3,486 Vol.
1%
30 de junio
$173,790 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a limited raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro amid airstrikes and helicopter insertions, marking the prior US military entry that defines this market. No subsequent ground entries have occurred, with Defense Department statements confirming no ongoing troops in Venezuela despite a sustained Navy blockade and 15,000-20,000 personnel amassed regionally. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals, including Maduro's ouster and Venezuela's nascent political transition reported in March, tempered by congressional debates over military authorizations and international rebukes of the operation as unlawful. Absent new escalation triggers like territorial disputes or failed diplomacy, probabilities remain low ahead of June deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ET
Volumen
$1,257,352Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US special forces conducted a limited raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro amid airstrikes and helicopter insertions, marking the prior US military entry that defines this market. No subsequent ground entries have occurred, with Defense Department statements confirming no ongoing troops in Venezuela despite a sustained Navy blockade and 15,000-20,000 personnel amassed regionally. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals, including Maduro's ouster and Venezuela's nascent political transition reported in March, tempered by congressional debates over military authorizations and international rebukes of the operation as unlawful. Absent new escalation triggers like territorial disputes or failed diplomacy, probabilities remain low ahead of June deadlines.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,257,352Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 3, 2026, 9:22 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
US special forces conducted a limited raid into Caracas on January 3, 2026, capturing Nicolás Maduro amid airstrikes and helicopter insertions, marking the prior US military entry that defines this market. No subsequent ground entries have occurred, with Defense Department statements confirming no ongoing troops in Venezuela despite a sustained Navy blockade and 15,000-20,000 personnel amassed regionally. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation signals, including Maduro's ouster and Venezuela's nascent political transition reported in March, tempered by congressional debates over military authorizations and international rebukes of the operation as unlawful. Absent new escalation triggers like territorial disputes or failed diplomacy, probabilities remain low ahead of June deadlines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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