Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 0.0%-0.3% UK GDP growth for Q1 2026 at 49% implied probability, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM) and three-month growth of just 0.2% to January, extending Q4 2025's 0.1% weakness amid softening services and contracting construction. Bank of England staff now project underlying Q1 expansion around 0.1%, tempered by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which prompted an OECD downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 0.7%. Mixed March PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4, construction in prolonged downturn—signal limited momentum, with 0.3%-0.6% (29%) a close second; watch February monthly GDP and final flash PMIs for resolution clues ahead of ONS quarterly release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado0,0-0,3% 54%
0,3-0,6% 28.8%
0,6-0,9% 23.9%
0,9-1,2% 14.4%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Negativo
13%
0,0-0,3%
49%
0,3-0,6%
29%
0,6-0,9%
24%
0,9-1,2%
14%
1,2-1,5%
1%
1,5-1,8%
1%
1,8%+
2%
0,0-0,3% 54%
0,3-0,6% 28.8%
0,6-0,9% 23.9%
0,9-1,2% 14.4%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
Negativo
$0 Vol.
13%
0,0-0,3%
$8,742 Vol.
49%
0,3-0,6%
$550 Vol.
29%
0,6-0,9%
$0 Vol.
24%
0,9-1,2%
$0 Vol.
14%
1,2-1,5%
$0 Vol.
1%
1,5-1,8%
$0 Vol.
1%
1,8%+
$690 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 0.0%-0.3% UK GDP growth for Q1 2026 at 49% implied probability, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM) and three-month growth of just 0.2% to January, extending Q4 2025's 0.1% weakness amid softening services and contracting construction. Bank of England staff now project underlying Q1 expansion around 0.1%, tempered by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which prompted an OECD downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 0.7%. Mixed March PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4, construction in prolonged downturn—signal limited momentum, with 0.3%-0.6% (29%) a close second; watch February monthly GDP and final flash PMIs for resolution clues ahead of ONS quarterly release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$9,982Fecha de finalización
May 14, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 0.0%-0.3% UK GDP growth for Q1 2026 at 49% implied probability, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM) and three-month growth of just 0.2% to January, extending Q4 2025's 0.1% weakness amid softening services and contracting construction. Bank of England staff now project underlying Q1 expansion around 0.1%, tempered by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which prompted an OECD downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 0.7%. Mixed March PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4, construction in prolonged downturn—signal limited momentum, with 0.3%-0.6% (29%) a close second; watch February monthly GDP and final flash PMIs for resolution clues ahead of ONS quarterly release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$9,982Fecha de finalización
May 14, 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued 0.0%-0.3% UK GDP growth for Q1 2026 at 49% implied probability, reflecting January's flat monthly print (0.0% MoM) and three-month growth of just 0.2% to January, extending Q4 2025's 0.1% weakness amid softening services and contracting construction. Bank of England staff now project underlying Q1 expansion around 0.1%, tempered by surging energy costs from the Iran conflict, which prompted an OECD downgrade of full-year 2026 growth to 0.7%. Mixed March PMIs—manufacturing at 51.4, construction in prolonged downturn—signal limited momentum, with 0.3%-0.6% (29%) a close second; watch February monthly GDP and final flash PMIs for resolution clues ahead of ONS quarterly release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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