Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M leading at 41.5% implied probability for the 5-day domestic bow starting Wednesday, April 1, over Easter. Surging presales—reportedly very strong in the last 48 hours—have pushed early forecasts upward from Deadline's $160M+ (March 12) toward $175M-$200M ranges cited in recent tracking updates, fueled by the final trailer drop on March 9 and yesterday's Variety reveal of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud for crossover gamer appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day Easter record, family demand and Nintendo brand loyalty drive optimism, though lower buckets like 170-180M reflect analyst caution on weather or competition; previews this week will sharpen estimates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 42%
170-180m 15.2%
190-200m 13.9%
160-170m 12.3%
$265,484 Vol.
$265,484 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
12%
170-180m
15%
180-190m
12%
190-200m
14%
>200m
42%
>200m 42%
170-180m 15.2%
190-200m 13.9%
160-170m 12.3%
$265,484 Vol.
$265,484 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$20,033 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$19,833 Vol.
12%
170-180m
$18,555 Vol.
15%
180-190m
$19,271 Vol.
12%
190-200m
$18,568 Vol.
14%
>200m
$169,225 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M leading at 41.5% implied probability for the 5-day domestic bow starting Wednesday, April 1, over Easter. Surging presales—reportedly very strong in the last 48 hours—have pushed early forecasts upward from Deadline's $160M+ (March 12) toward $175M-$200M ranges cited in recent tracking updates, fueled by the final trailer drop on March 9 and yesterday's Variety reveal of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud for crossover gamer appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day Easter record, family demand and Nintendo brand loyalty drive optimism, though lower buckets like 170-180M reflect analyst caution on weather or competition; previews this week will sharpen estimates.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$265,484Fecha de finalización
Apr 6, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M leading at 41.5% implied probability for the 5-day domestic bow starting Wednesday, April 1, over Easter. Surging presales—reportedly very strong in the last 48 hours—have pushed early forecasts upward from Deadline's $160M+ (March 12) toward $175M-$200M ranges cited in recent tracking updates, fueled by the final trailer drop on March 9 and yesterday's Variety reveal of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud for crossover gamer appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day Easter record, family demand and Nintendo brand loyalty drive optimism, though lower buckets like 170-180M reflect analyst caution on weather or competition; previews this week will sharpen estimates.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$265,484Fecha de finalización
Apr 6, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a massive opening weekend for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, with >$200M leading at 41.5% implied probability for the 5-day domestic bow starting Wednesday, April 1, over Easter. Surging presales—reportedly very strong in the last 48 hours—have pushed early forecasts upward from Deadline's $160M+ (March 12) toward $175M-$200M ranges cited in recent tracking updates, fueled by the final trailer drop on March 9 and yesterday's Variety reveal of Glen Powell voicing Fox McCloud for crossover gamer appeal. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day Easter record, family demand and Nintendo brand loyalty drive optimism, though lower buckets like 170-180M reflect analyst caution on weather or competition; previews this week will sharpen estimates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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